MLB Picks: Brewers vs. Struggling Mets Signal Low Scoring Matchup

David Lawrence

Saturday, May 16, 2015 11:25 AM GMT

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are in very different positions right now. The Brewers are one of the worst teams in the National League while the Mets lead the National League East. Who’ll cash on the MLB betting lines on Saturday?

The Milwaukee Brewers Can Win Because…
If you look at starter Matt Garza’s progression over the course of the season, it has been steadily better with each week. In Garza’s first three starts, he gave up four runs in one start and five in another. He entered April 24 with a 5.40 ERA and had not justified the big money he collected when he came to the Brewers. In the past four weeks, though, Garza has been able to clean up his mechanics and become more like the pitcher the Brewers hoped they would be getting, but that hasn't been enough apparently; given the Brewers are listed as short underdogs on the MLB odds for tonight's matchup.

Garza hasn’t allowed more than three runs in each of his last four starts. On April 24 and 29, he allowed a combined five runs in 12 2/3 innings of work. On May 5 and 10, he allowed a total of four runs in 13 innings of work. His most recent start, on May 10 against the Chicago Cubs, was easily his best outing of the season. It was Garza’s longest stint this year, at seven complete innings, and he gave up only one run, his lowest total of 2015.  Garza struck out nine hitters, three more than his previous season high of six (April 24). He also allowed only three hits. That brings up another point: Garza just isn’t getting hit hard right now. He allowed a total of 14 hits in his first two starts, 14 more in his next two starts. In his last three starts, he’s allowed a total fo 12 hits. He’s getting more velocity on his pitches and is able to put hitters away. That’s great news for Milwaukee, and since the Mets have lost five games in a row entering Saturday, you have to think that Garza is in a good position to keep them in a slump.

Check out our MLB pick for tonight's Nationals vs Padres

The New York Mets Can Win Because…
They're going to break out of their rut very soon. This is how baseball works. In the course of 162 games, teams will rise and fall. You might see an exceptionally long winning or losing streak every now and then, but for the most part, contrary results emerge in the midst of trends. One doubts that the Brewers, at 13-23 – with one of the worst records in baseball – are going to play another complete game after skunking the Mets by a 7-0 score on Friday in the opener of this series. The Mets’ hitters are likely to bring a better approach to the plate against Garza, who – while improving – has to show that he can be dominant on a recurring basis, not just in isolation. Garza’s ERA is still higher than that of Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom. Garza’s ERA checks in at 4.04, while deGrom’s ERA is 3.46. DeGrom should be able to steer the Mets past the Brewers.

 

Outlook
The upward trajectory of Garza’s season, combined with the Mets’ overall struggles, suggest that New York will have another tough day at the office. Since the side is a tough one to call, go with the under for your MLB picks in this one.

MLB Pick: Under at WagerWeb