MLB Picks: Brewers vs. Rangers - Don't Be Fooled By Starter's High ERA's When Betting Steep Totals Odds 

Martin Perez Walking in the field during a game.

Charles Stark

Monday, September 26, 2016 2:11 PM GMT

Today Texas takes on the Milwaukee Brewers in an interleague matchup were total odds seem to have great value as both of these pitchers have thrown well in four out their past five starts. With those outings, there's room to take advantage over the oddsmakers who seem to have set this total too high.

For Texas, it is now a question of home field advantage being that they've already clinched the American League West. Keep reading if you want to find out my MLB pick after this game's analysis. 

 

Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Garza gets the start for Milwaukee and comes in with a 4.52 ERA and 1.53 whip while allowing batters to hit .319 against him on the road. Having batters hitting over .300 against you in any sort of scenario on the season is definitely not good and Garza has had his struggles the season. However, in his last 10 starts, he actually has not been horrible allowing just 24 earned runs in just under 60 innings of work in that timeframe. He has had a couple rough starts in that stretch giving up five earned runs at Seattle and in his most recent start versus Pittsburgh but outside of that he has actually been okay and in four out of his last five starts he has given up just three total earned runs off of 19 hits in 23 innings. I don't expect them to come in and be lights out versus a really good Texas team but I do expect him to keep the damage to a minimum.

 

Texas Rangers
Martin Perez takes the mound for Texas and comes in with a 4.14 ERA and 1.38 whip but just a 2.65 ERA at home with batters hitting .251 against him in Arlington. Like Garza, Perez has had just a couple rough outings over his last 10 starts but more recently has been really solid. In his last four starts he has given up just six earned runs off of 21 hits in 25 innings so he should come into this game with a lot of confidence and momentum. In eight out of his last 10 starts he has gone at least six innings so I expect for him to most likely come in and have a quality start against a pretty weak hitting Milwaukee team. At the plate, Texas is one of the best hitting teams in the American League, but over their last several games they haven't been doing a lot of damage and in their last 10 games they have only scored five or more runs just three times.

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers Predictions
Oddsmakers have come out with a total of 10 for this contest across the board with a bit of higher juice on under the total. For my pick, I'm going to get the best odds I can and take under at -110 at Heritage sports, where you can get a 50% Cash bonus. Although it seems with both of these starter's high ERA's we will see a lot of runs, looking closer at their recent performance this game should stay under the total.

 

Free MLB Pick: Under 10 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 15-15-1

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