MLB Picks: Brewers vs Padres Live Odds & Betting Anaylisis

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, May 17, 2017 2:14 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 17, 2017 2:14 PM UTC

Brewers fans are bubbling over with entusiasm as their team is unexpectedlty competing for the NL Central lead. They can claim the top spot with a win at San Diego Wednesday night (10:10 p.m. ET), as Matt Garza squares off against Jhoulys Chacin and the Padres.

Milwaukee Brewers (22-18)

Are the Brewers for real? Crossing the plate 5.35 times per game, they sit a half-game back of the Cardinals for first in the NL Central. The team’s +27 run differential is sixth highest in MLB. Following spring training, oddsmakers pegged the Brew Crew +8000 odds to win the division. That number is down to +3500 as of May 1.

Matt Garza gets the nod from manager Craig Counsell in the third of a four-game series at San Diego. The 11-year pro is pitching well to begin the season after sitting out the first few weeks with strained right groin. Garza is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four outings.

Garza is unbeaten against the Padres, going 3-0 with a 1.93 in four career starts. Erick Aybar is the only Padre with more than seven plate appearances, hitting 8-for-26 with a .910 OPS.

Historically, the Brewers are poor behind Garza on the road, going 13-24 SU overall. The team has lost bettors roughly 20 percent at +132 average odds.  The staff yields 5.11 runs per game. Most of the defeats have come at a big number. Milwaukee is 3-12 when the line is above the +132 average, 10-12 underneath. Books opened the Padres -118 favorites.

 San Diego Padres (15-26)

Nobody expected much from the Padres this season with their miniscule payroll and near Triple-AAA roster. Nonetheless, the team is finding ways to pick up some victories, at least at Petco Park. Sand Diego is 8-10 SU at home, yet post a -2.2 run differential. Yikes. Hey, a win’s a win.

Jhoulys Chacin takes the pill for skipper Andy Green Wednesday night. The sinkerballer is 4-3 with a 5.12 ERA in eight starts this season. Lifetime, Chacin is 0-1 with 5.23 ERA in five outings against Milwaukee. The right-hander owns 25 strikeouts to seven walks through 32.2 frames. Opposing pitcher Matt Garza is just one of two current Brewers to record an at-bat. Infielder Travis Shaw is the other, going 1-for-4 with an RBI.

Dating back to last June and his stint with the Angles, Chacin has tossed the first pitch once as the betting favorite. His team is 8-8 in this span, returning 10 percent to investors at +143 average odds. Chacin and crew has won every outing at MLB odds of +125 or less, going 7-0 in this spot. The -118 line tonight is the shortest of all.

 Final Analysis

The Brewers are hot, but the fact Chacin is relatively unknown to the current roster is troubling. Chacin will have to keep the ball in the park, which is tough against Milwaukee. The Brewers smash 1.6 long balls per game, second most in the bigs, and have tagged at least one in five of their last six played at Petco. In the last calendar year, when Chacin does not allow a home run, his team is 10-3 SU as opposed to 1-10 SU when gifting at least one. We like Garza and the better team at plus money. Brewers +110 is the play.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +121Best Line Odds: at BetOnline

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