MLB Picks: With Braves & Nationals Both Riding 3-Game Winning Streak, Raw Stats Signal the Edge

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, June 23, 2015 12:46 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2015 12:46 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant examines Tuesday’s NL East encounter between Atlanta and Washington. Join us in reading this informative betting preview article that culminates with his money line selection.

NL East Rivals open Three Game Set on Tuesday
The Braves and Nationals will open a three game series in Washington on tonight at 7:05 PM ET. Washington has gone 5-1 versus Atlanta in 2015, and all six games went over the total. Both clubs had an off day on Monday, and each is riding a three game winning streak heading into this series. My area of concentration on this game will be geared toward the money line.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Braves will go with southpaw hurler Alex Wood on the mound today. Wood has shown very good form during his previous six starts posting a stellar 2.52 ERA in those outings. He’s also been solid in eight starts on the road this season with a 2.58 ERA. On a negative note, he struggled in two starts versus Washington this year, evidenced by his lofty 5.68 ERA during those games.

Stephen Strasburg returns today from the DL and will make his first start since 5/29/2015. The once highly touted right-hander really struggled in his prior four starts, posting a monster 11.08 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and he allowed 5 home runs in only 13.0 innings pitched. Strasburg was 1-4 in his team starts versus the Braves in 2014 with an unimpressive 5.40 ERA, and gave up 6 home runs in only 28 1/3 innings of work.

 

Money Line Betting System
Any road team (Braves) with a slugging percentage of .370 or less during their last 15 games, and is facing a starting pitcher (Strasburg) with a WHIP of 2.00 or more in his previous five starts, resulted in that road team going 31-9 (77.5%) against the money line since 2011. The road team had an average money line of +113.4 in those 40 games, and their run per game differential was a sizable +2.1.

Betting Stats You Can't Ignore & Must Read: Giants 1-9 at Home with 3 Runs Average P/Game

Conclusion
I’m going to have a very small lean toward the money line road underdog as one of my MLB picks for Tuesday. 5Dimes provides us with the best money line value in that regard.

MLB Pick: Play on Atlanta +145 on the money at 5Dimes

comment here