MLB Picks: Bounce Back Pitchers to Keep Low Score in Diamondbacks vs. Marlins

Charles Stark

Monday, May 18, 2015 1:16 PM GMT

Monday, May. 18, 2015 1:16 PM GMT

After each pitcher having a rough outing last time out, I expect both of them to have better outings when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Miami Marlins.  In this spot the play is under the total.

De La Rosa vs. Haren
MLB betting odds makers have opened this game up at a total of 8. That seems about right when considering the stats, but I will be backing the under the total today in this spot. After surrendering four earned runs off of eight hits I am looking for De La Rosa to bounce back against the Marlins. On the year he comes in with a 4.50 ERA but a pretty solid WHIP of 1.20.  The last time he gave up four or more he bounced right back in his next two outings giving up three runs and zero runs respectively.  Also, De La Rosa is a good strikeout pitcher with 42 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched ranking him 25th in the league for strikeouts per innings pitched.  Haren comes in with a 3.70 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.00.  He is coming off his worst outing of the year when he gave up six runs in four innings against the Dodgers.  He is also a solid bounce back guy, in his other bad outing giving up four earned in six innings he came back in his next three starts allowing two, zero, and two runs respectively.

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Score to win
One of my favorite stats to consider about total in MLB baseball, after matchups, is on base %. The Dbacks and Marlins rank 10th and 11th respectively, not bad at all.  One of the main issues for me though is that the Marlins are facing a good strikeout pitcher in De La Rosa and they are ranked 25th in the league in team strikeouts per game. Arizona is a good hitting team and rank in the top ten in most offensive categories, but Haren can be tough against even the best hitting teams. He is savvy enough to keep them in check and at home this year he has been fantastic with a 1.59 ERA.

Pretty good ball game on tap, Miami is going through some changes but with the matchups involved I don’t see a lot of runs being scored in this game.  Back the under with confidence for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Under at BetOnline

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