MLB Picks: Books Set Line Too High for Reds vs. Cardinals, Bet Under

Charles Stark

Sunday, September 13, 2015 12:14 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 13, 2015 12:14 PM UTC

Last game out both pitchers got knocked around allowing 11 earned runs total between them. I think that gives us some good value as odds makers have made this line too high in my opinion.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers have set this line at 7.5 for the total, and right now there's a little bit higher juice on backing the under. Still, you get some decent odds at Pinnacle Sports taking under the total of 7.5 at -113.


St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Cardinals and comes in with a 2.96 ERA, 1.15 whip, 136 strikeouts, and a 15-5 record. On the road he has been really solid with a ERA of 2.90 and batters just hitting .237 against. In his last 10 starts he has only had three rough outings, the first one back on July 8th in Chicago in which he allowed five earned runs against the Cubs, then against the Chicago White Sox allowing five earned runs in his next start. Finally, just last week against the Cubs again he allowed six earned runs, two home runs, six hits, in just four innings pitched. Despite those three games he has been solid all season and I expect him to pitch well in this nice bounce back spot.

St. Louis ranks 25th in runs scored per game at 4.00, 21st in OPS at .711, and 12th in team batting average hitting .254 as a team. Those are some pretty pedestrian numbers for a team that is arguably the best in baseball. They rely a lot on their pitching and they are pretty decent team when it comes to timely hitting. They are a very well-rounded team that just knows how to win. I don't expect them offensively to do a lot of damage today against a solid starter for the Reds.


Cincinnati Reds
Raisel Iglesias gets the start for the Reds and comes in with a 4.18 ERA 1.14 whip, 101 strikeouts, and a 3-7 record. In his last 10 starts he has pitched well and really only had one subpar outing and one bad outing. That bad outing just happens to be his last time on the mound at home versus Pittsburgh in which he allowed five earned runs in just three innings. Like Wacha though, that just puts him in a nice bounce back spot in which I expect him to be very solid today. Although his overall statistics and record are not that great the 25-year-old should have a nice major league career, he has got some good stuff and when he is on is a very good strikeout pitcher.

Cincinnati ranks 22nd in runs scored per game at 4.06, 19th in OPS at .714, and 23rd in team batting average hitting .250 as a team. Whether they're at home on the road or averages don't change a lot and they are simply middle tiered offense in the major leagues. For me this kind of surprising because they have some really good hitters in that lineup. Today, I don't anticipate them doing a lot against Wacha who shut them out in Cincinnati in early August. Normally, I would like Cincinnati to score more getting the second look at him. But I think him being in a bounce back spot, with some confidence against the Reds, puts him in a better position to be lights out today.


Final Analysis
It is starting to get close to NL playoff time and the Cardinals are going to be right in the mix. For today's game though I suggest adding under the total to one of your MLB picks in what should be a real pitcher's duel, back the under.

MLB Pick: Reds & Cardinals UNDER (7.5) at Pinnacle

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