MLB Picks: Blue Jays Have Mound & Plate Advantage in ALCS Game 4

Darin Zank

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

The home teams are 3-0 in this ALCS so far, after Toronto's 11-8 victory in Game 3 Monday night. Can the Jays make it four in a row for the hosts Tuesday afternoon?

ALCS Game 4 Odds
In the early Game 4 betting action the best MLB odds we could find on Toronto with RA Dickey was the -146 offered at 5Dimes, while Kansas City with big Chris Young was getting +143 at Heritage.

Also, 5Dimes once again adjusted its odds to win this ALCS, with KC now chalked at -150, the Jays getting +130.


The Situation
Toronto hit the board in this ALCS with an 11-8 victory in Game 3 Monday night, bombing Kansas City starter Johnny Cueto for eight runs in just two-plus innings of work, making a mockery of this handicapper's free MLB pick on the game.

This handicapper is having a little problem with this series, backing the visiting team in each game, only to watch in dismay as the home team has won the first three. Almost makes one a little gun-shy.


Game 4 Pitching Match-Up
Dickey (11-11, 3.91), by our strict standards, went 17-for-33 on quality starts during the regular season, and finished well, holding foes to just four runs over his last three starts, covering 18 innings. He then started Game 4 of the ALDS against Texas down in Arlington eight days ago, holding the Rangers to one run and five hits through 4 2/3 innings of an 8-4 Toronto victory.

On the season the Jays are 19-15 in Dickey's starts, with the totals splitting 15-15.

In his only start this season against Kansas City, back in August, Dickey tossed seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball, walking two while whiffing six, in a 5-2 Toronto victory.

Young (11-6, 3.06) went just six-for-18 on quality starts this season, to go along with 16 appearances in relief, but finished well, allowing just one run over his last two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings. He then tossed four innings of relief in Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston 12 days ago, allowing one run and three hits through four innings, walking two while striking out seven, in a 5-2 Royals loss.

The Royals are 12-6 in Young's starts this season, with the totals skewing UNDER by an 11-4 margin.

In his one start this year against the Blue Jays, back in July, Young gave up three runs on five hits through six innings of a 6-2 Kansas City defeat.


Game 4 Batting Splits
Kansas City ranked 11th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .321 team on-base percentage, and sixth with a .416 team slugging percentage. However, Dickey isn't quite your typical right-hander.

Toronto, meanwhile, ranked No. 1 against righties with both a .335 team OBP and a .455 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Rogers Centre during the regular season skewed UNDER by a 46-31 margin, even though they averaged 9.2 runs per. But nothing was going to hold Monday night's Game 3 down, as the teams combined to score 11 runs through the first four innings, playing OVER a total of eight runs.


ALCS Game 4 Free Picks
We'll give Dickey the edge in the pitching match-up, and Toronto owns the edge with the sticks. So for this first time in this series we'll go with the home team for our free MLB playoff pick.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays -146 at 5Dimes

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