MLB Picks: Blue Jays to Blowout on the Run-Line Over Boston

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, September 19, 2015 4:42 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 19, 2015 4:42 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant breaks down Saturday’s AL East clash between Boston and Toronto. Join us in reading this revealing betting preview article culminating with his pick on the game.

AL East Rivals Collide Again on Saturday Afternoon
A couple of AL East rivals will meet on Saturday afternoon when the Red Sox and Blue Jays square off. The opening pitch at the Rogers Centre in Toronto is slated for 4:05 PM ET. Toronto took the opener of this three games series on Friday by defeating Boston 6-1. Despite the large disparity in records between these clubs, Toronto holds a slim 9-8 advantage in seventeen encounters versus Boston in 2015.

 

Starting Pitcher
Southpaw Wade Miley will get the starting pitching assignment for Boston today. Miley has struggled in his two starts versus Toronto this year, evidenced a terrible 6.55 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in those outings. The Boston hurler has been extremely shaky in his last four road starts, compiling a lofty 5.96 ERA, and opponents have a robust .342 batting average against him during that stretch.

Knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey will be on the mound for Toronto. Dickey has gone a perfect 5-0 in his last five starts at home while posting an excellent 1.69 ERA. He’s also displayed superb form during his previous three starts overall, evidenced by a sparkling 0.79 WHIP during that stretch.

 

Home and Away Disparities
The Red Sox are a somewhat respectable 39-35 at home this year, but a dismal 30-42 (.417) in away games. The biggest difference on the road correlates directly to their offensive numbers which are far different than at hitter friendly Fenway Park.

Toronto has gone a terrific 48-25 (.658) at the Rogers Centre this year, and that includes 17-4 during their previous twenty-one. Even more impressive is their 33-11 (.750) mark as a money line home favorite of -150 or more, and they fall into that parameter today. During those forty-four outings, they have a sizable +3.0 run per game differential.

 

Final Analysis
These are two teams with opposite mindsets. One (Toronto) has everything to play for, and the other (Boston) is playing out the string of a massively disappointing season. In addition, one starting pitcher (Dickey) has been red-hot in recent home starts, and his adversary (Miley) has encountered a lot of difficulty on the road of late.

I like the home team to prevail in a very decisive manner for one of my MLB picks today. According to MLB odds board at Pinnacle, they offer up the best betting value for a run-line wager.

MLB Pick: Play Toronto -1.5 (+113) at Pinnacle.

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