MLB Picks: Betting Odds & Lines Report

Steven Suarez

Thursday, May 16, 2013 11:35 AM UTC

Thursday, May. 16, 2013 11:35 AM UTC

AFTERNOON UPDATE: With only nine games on the schedule, let's hit it with our MLB picks today.


One early game is already underway, but the beef of Thursday's schedule is still to come. Inside you'll find our breakdown of the updated MLB odds.

Mariners (Noesi) vs. Yankees (Pettitte) 

The Mariners have decided to scratch Aaron Harang from his start and he'll be replaced by Hector Noesi, who's posted a 3.86 ERA in 9 and 1/3 innings this season.

Initially the Yankees were favored at -170, and there really hasn't been much movement even with the pitching change. They can now be locked in at -175, with Seattle at +165 and the total at 8.5 runs at the online sportsbooks.

New York clearly has the advantage with Pettitte on the mound, even with the late switch for Seattle. Joe Freda liked the UNDER with his sports picks, but that was before the starting pitcher change. Willie Bee meanwhile likes the Yankees in spite of tonight's heavy chalk. 

Giants (Cain) vs. Rockies (Chacin)

The MLB odds for this game have been tight all day long, but for now the Giants are -108 favorites, with the Rockies just behind at -102. Though both Matt Cain and Jhoulys Chacin have shown they can be very effective, the total for tonight's game is at 9.5 runs. 

Both teams are coming off disappointing results on the road, so the Rockies will be desperate to get their home-stand off to a positive start, especially against a division rival. 

Cain has had a lot of success against Colorado recently, going 7-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 10 appearances against them. He's also looked much more locked in over his past two starts, so we can't blame Swingin' Johnson whatsoever for backing San Francisco here, especially when you take Chacin's struggles against the Giants into account.


Reds (Latos) vs. Marlins (Fernandez)

The Reds have had no problems so far in this series in Miami and will try for another win tonight with big fella Mat Latos on the hill. Latos has been mired in a rough spell as of late, but he's still yet to lose a decision this season. 

The right-hander has also gotten the job done on the road so far (2-0, 2.66 ERA), though it must be noted that he's had a hard time against the Marlins in the past. Let's not lose sight of the fact this Miami team is vastly different than what it used to be – these guys are ranked dead last in runs scored and team batting average.

Nonetheless, Jeff Grant has decided that the best MLB betting value, in his estimation, is on the Marlins in the first five innings of this ballgame. Jose Fernandez has fared well against left-handers batters this season and Cincinnati has quite a few heavy-hitting lefties, so this seems to be a good matchup for the rookie.


White Sox (Quintana) vs. Angels (Williams)

One of the late games tonight features the Angels and White Sox, two teams that have been ultra disappointing to their respective fanbases. Combined the two teams are 14 games under .500, with the Angels at a truly terrible 15-25 overall.

L.A's poor play hasn't stopped oddsmakers from making them -135 favorites at home. Jerome Williams gets the start for the home team and Jose Quintana takes the bump for the visiting White Sox. Both pitchers have ERAs under 3.75 up until this point in the season. 

PJ Laferla can't help himself here, as the underdog price against a team performing as badly as Angels is hard to pass up. He's taking Chicago. 

Biggest ML Favorites

New York Yankees (-175) vs. Seattle Mariners

Cincinnati Reds (-155) at Miami Marlins

Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Angels (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays (-135) vs. Boston Red Sox


Here's the early report on the opening odds.

At first glance, here are a couple interesting lines: the Nationals, with Stephen Strasburg on the mound, are trading in and around the -150 area for the game one of their road series against San Diego, while the Cardinals are the larget MLB odds favorite of the day at -210 versus the New York Mets.

Mariners (Harang) vs. Yankees (Pettitte)

One day after losing a heart-breaker, the Mariners bounced back in a big way by thrashing the Yankees yesterday. They jumped all over Phil Hughes early and never looked back on their way to a dominant 12-2 win.

It's going to take something extraordinary for a similar kind of result tonight, as Andy Pettitte will be pitching for New York, with Seattle sending out Aaron Harang, who's 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA for the season so far.

Clearly the pitching advantage goes to the Bronx Bombers here, which is why they can be found at -170 on the MLB odds board for our baseball picks. Check back in with us later to see which way Willie Bee opts to go here.


Giants (Cain) vs. Rockies (Chacin)

Matt Cain got off to a horrendous start this season, going 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA through his first four appearances. He has gotten his act together lately though, as he's given up just three earned runs over his last 15 and 1/3 innings of work. His ERA now stands at 5.04.

Still not great, but Cain is more than capable of continuing this hot run – after all, this is a guy that's posted a career ERA of 3.33 and WHIP of 1.17. Can he stifle the Rockies (+101) at Coors Field tonight?

It won't be easy. Colorado has been hitting the ball great in 2013, ranking in the top five in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging. Jhoulys Chacin takes the bump for the Rockies (3-2, 2.70 ERA) and Swingin' Johnson will have his MLB pick for this matchup later on in the day.


Reds (Latos) vs. Marlins (Fernandez)

The Reds are playing terrific baseball at the moment, having won five straight games while going 9-3 in the month of May so far. Their overall record is now at 24-16.

Of course, it always helps to pad that record against teams like the Marlins, who have lost four straight. Miami has gone 3-10 in May, with all three wins coming on the road.

This evening it'll be Mat Latos and Jose Fernandez that take the hill for Cincinnati and Miami respectively. Latos is still undefeated on the year at 4-0, while recording a 3.04 ERA, but he's looked very shaky over his last two starts. Nonetheless, the Reds are still upwards of -175 favorites against this struggling Marlins ballclub – will Jeff Grant be making a ML or total play for tonight?


White Sox (Quintana) vs. Angels (Williams)

Just four days after a 2-1 series win over the White Sox ended, the Angels will try to get the job done again in a four-game set, only this time they'll be at home. L.A still isn't performing very well overall though, as they just lost a series at home to Kansas City.

At 15-25 overall with one of the most stacked rosters you'll find in the major leagues, saying 2013 has been a disappointment for the Angels would be an understatement. The pitching is a complete mess, as they rank #28 in team ERA at 4.66.

Tonight's game will feature Jose Quintana and Jerome Williams, with L.A. currently the favorites at roughly -140. PJ Laferla is covering the game and, with the way these two teams have been playing this season, appears to have his work cut out for him.


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