MLB Picks: Better Bullpen to Help Mets Win a Close One Over Marlins

Doug Upstone

Thursday, April 16, 2015 5:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 16, 2015 5:21 PM UTC

Coming into the 2015 campaign, Miami and the New York were both expected to be improved. Though the season is still young, only one team has been a disappointment to many MLB baseball handicappers.

The Marlins have washed ashore at just 3-6 and is already down 4.5 units for their backers making MLB picks. While it is hard to call any April series truly important, this four-game series with the Mets will matter as they continue their 10-game road trip.


Miami to Start Turning Scoreboard Number More Frequently
After surpassing five runs once to start 1-6, the Marlins has scored 14 runs in their previous two outings and won both to take the series at Atlanta. Key acquisitions Dee Gordon (.378 BA) and Mike Morse (.265 BA, .324 OBP) have exceed early expectations. However, with each passing year Martin Prado (.226) is beginning to look like a journeyman ballplayer and opposing pitchers have figured out centerfielder’s Marcell Ozuna’s weak points which is why he is hitting .214.

Of course the hot topic in South Florida in Giancarlo Stanton, who is hitting .200 and has yet to hit a ball over the fence. Various theories include the pressure of the big contract and is he pressing or trying to stay too cool and not being aggressive enough. The general consensus is he will find his way and he’s still being disciplined at the dish in walking seven times, which explains his .368 on-base percentage.

Miami will look to keep hitting and cool off New York.


M-E-T-S, Mets, Mets, Mets
Having not posted a winning record in since 2008, there was a sense this spring training the Mets franchise had finally turned a corner and bettors were willing to look at their MLB odds and think of them more positively than wager against them.

Manager Terry Collins in the baseball community and those placing sports picks as a mediocre game strategist, but because of owner’s Fred Wilpon’s financial woes, he will serve out his contract. Disastrous signing like Johan Santana and Jason Bay further depleted resources and instead the Metropolitans were forced to look inwardly.

This has paid off; as New York has some of the best young pitchers in baseball with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom (don’t forget about Zack Wheeler for next season).

Collins lineup card does not resemble what the Detroit Tigers send out daily, but it’s not terrible either and has veteran players with good attitudes who do not try to more their capable of, which has led to 6-3 start and today they go after their fifth straight win, something they have not accomplished in two years.


Pitching Matchup – Cosart vs. Gee
Jarred Cosart will climb the hill for the Marlins off a six inning stint in which he allowed one run to Tampa Bay in a 1-0 shutout loss. Cosart’s fastball reads 92-96 on the radar guns and has movement high and low in the zone. He offers a couple different curves and the one to righties has more lateral movement. He’s faced New York once and had a no-decision in which his team won 6-5 last September.

Dillon Gee was trade material for the Metropolitans, but when Wheeler was lost and with Gee having a fine spring, he was back in the starting rotation. How long he remains will depend if he has another outing like his first when Atlanta tagged Gee for five runs in five innings. The 28-year old has five different pitches in his arsenal, but scouts would not label any of them as “good.” Nonetheless, Gee has been good enough to post a 3-1 record with a 2.84 ERA against Miami in six starts.


Fantasy Spin
The Mets Lucas Duda is 9 for 22 with four doubles in past five contests.

New York’s Travis d'Arnaud 10 for 30 with eight RBI's in eight contest and has a .346 average in 15 career meetings with Miami.

Miami shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria is on a 7 for 11 tear and is batting .354 against New York in nine previous encounters.


Odds and Outcome
Sportsbooks sent out New York as a modest -115 favorite and the betting odds on the Mets are now under -110 with Un 7 for total. If the pitchers perform to career norms, this should be a close game heading into the late innings which is where New York holds the edge with their bullpen sporting a 2.59 ERA compared to the Marlins are 4.76. Where is could fall apart for Miami is there pensters surrender almost a walk every two innings, while New York averages one free pass every three innings.

Not my favorite game of the day, but I will say New York extends their winning streak to five tonight.

MLB Free Pick – New York wins

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