MLB Picks: Bet Yankees RL Plus Money to Flex Muscles at Plate vs. Rays

Darin Zank

Sunday, September 6, 2015 11:25 AM GMT

The Rays and ace Chris Archer are short favorites for a rubber match with the Yankees Sunday at the Stadium. How are we betting this contest?

Rays-Yanks Sunday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Tampa with Chris Archer was the -126 offered at 5Dimes, while New York and Ivan Nova were getting +111 at The Greek. And most of the MLB odds market listed a total on today's game of 7.5 runs, with a few eights out there, too.

 

The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, following Tampa's 3-2 victory Saturday. So the Rays have won four of their last six games, while even with the loss New York is 6-2 over its last eight contests.

At 75-59 the Yanks trail division-leading Toronto by a game and a half in the AL East, but also lead the AL wild-card race by four games over second-place Texas.

At 67-68 Tampa trails the Rangers by 4.5 games in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

The Yanks lead this season series nine games to six, with the UNDERS going 9-5-1.

 

Sunday's Starters
Nova (5-7, 4.50), by our tough standards, is only four-for-12 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. Monday he gave up three runs in six innings against Boston, and over his last three starts he's allowed 13 runs through 15 innings. On the season, which for him didn't start until late June, Nova has allowed 67 hits through 68 innings, walked 24 and struck out 42.

New York is 5-7 in Nova's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by an 8-3 margin.

In one start this year against Tampa Nova gave up four runs – three earned – through five innings of an 8-1 Yankees defeat back in July.

Archer (12-10, 2.78) is 17-for-28 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Monday he tossed six scoreless innings against Baltimore, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four runs through 21 innings, with 29 strikeouts. For the season Archer has allowed 142 hits through 181 innings, walked 46 and struck out 223 for a K/BB ratio of almost 5/1.

The Rays are 16-12 in Archer's starts, with the totals going 13-12.

In two starts this season against the Yanks Archer has allowed two runs through 13 2/3 innings; thanks to a collapse from his bullpen Tampa only managed to split those two games.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
Tampa ranks 25th in the Big this season against right-handed pitching with a .306 team on-base percentage, and 28th with a .382 team slugging percentage.

New York ranks 15th against righties with a .318 team OBP and fourth with a .425 team slugging percentage.

We gotta give the edge with the sticks to the Yankees.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 31-30 on the totals, averaging 9.1 runs per.

 

Injury Update
New York OF Jacoby Ellsbury has missed recent action with an illness, but he could play today. On the other side of the scorecard Tampa slugger Evan Longoria left Saturday's game after getting hit on the arm with a pitch, and his status for today is uncertain.

 

Rays-Yanks Free Picks
Archer gets the check mark in the pitching match-up, but New York owns the edge with the sticks. With other factors washing out we believe the value on today's line resides with the Yankees. Also, this season series is skewing UNDER, and we'll go along with that with our MLB pick for Sunday.

 

MLB Picks: Yankees (+111) & 'UNDER' 8 at Pinnacle

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