MLB Picks: Bet the Under on Cardinals vs. Brewers

Steven Suarez

Friday, July 11, 2014 3:26 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 11, 2014 3:26 PM GMT

Only two games separate the Brewers and Cardinals in the NL Central, so you know tensions will be high for this weekend's series. We've examined the MLB odds for game one tonight and believe we have a good read on the best available value.

Odds Overview
Both teams are desperate for a win, but it's Milwaukee that's favored at home at betting odds of -135 or so. A Cardinals win is listed at +125. For those wishing to make a play on the total, the O/U currently stands at 7.5.


St. Louis Cardinals (Kelly)
The Cardinals were beaten badly in last night's series finale against another division foe in Pittsburgh. The Pirates jumped all over Shelby Miller on their way to an easy 9-1 victory.

With the loss, St. Louis moved to 50-43 overall and, thanks to another Milwaukee loss yesterday, they remain only two games back of the division leaders.

The pitching, though, has to get better and that's why the Cardinals have to be thrilled to have Joe Kelly back on the mound. Kelly was recently activated from the 60-day DL and will make his first start in close to three months tonight.

Kelly has only made three starts this season, but from what we've seen he's looked sharp when healthy. He's allowed just one earned run over 15 and 1/3 innings in total, picking up where he left off from a 2013 campaign in which he went 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA.

Considering St. Louis was just hit with the awful news of Yadier Molina's injury, Kelly's return is more than welcome. We're anxious to see how he fares in his first MLB action in months.

 

Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo)
Things are starting to get ugly. The losing streak is now at five games for the Brewers and they've gone a miserable 1-9 over their last 10 games.

As we noted up top, Milwaukee's edge in the division has all but evaporated. The month of July has been as bad as it can get for the Brewers – they've won just one time – and things reached an all-time low after they were swept at home by the Phillies, who are just 41-51 overall this season.

As you can see, Milwaukee really needs a win right now, so let's see if Yovani Gallardo can help out with a quality start.

Gallardo has been an integral part of the Brewers' early-season success. He's been unlucky not to get better run support at times (5-5 win-loss record), but his ERA (3.45) and WHIP (1.23) show he's been effective so far in 2014.

Coming into tonight, Gallardo has gone 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts at home. In his one appearance against the Cardinals, he went six innings and allowed seven hits and three runs in a no decision.

 

MLB Pick
Once again we're angling towards a total play with our MLB picks for Friday night.

We're steering clear of a money-line selection, as we can't back the Brewers while they're playing so poorly, yet we wouldn't be surprised to see them get back on the winning side here at home against a St. Louis team that hasn't been that good on the road.

So, let's roll with the UNDER instead.

Gallardo has been very solid lately and we expect a good outing out of Kelly in his return, so we look for a relatively low-scoring final. We're adding the UNDER to our collection of sports picks in hopes we can start the weekend off in style.

Pick: UNDER 7.5

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