MLB Picks: Bet the Total for Brewers vs. Mets

Jeff Grant

Thursday, June 12, 2014 1:30 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 12, 2014 1:30 PM UTC

Kyle Lohse has struggled mightily when taking the hill at Citi Field, which will lead the New York Mets to their first home series win over the Milwaukee Brewers for the first time in five years. Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this National League matchup.

One more for the road 
Milwaukee is 4-3 on its current eight-game road trip, which includes a 3-1 victory over New York as -113 favorites Wednesday, while going 'under' the betting total of 7. Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez is one of the key players for sports bettors to handicap, considering he’s reached base safely in 26 consecutive contests. MLB handicappers will find that the Milwaukee Brewers are 5-6 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 during the 2014 campaign.

Falling short in clutch situations
New York has dropped seven of its last eight games due to hitting just .141 with runners in scoring position over that span. Mets third baseman David Wright is the key to victory, as he’s gone 9 for 21 with two home runs in his career against tonight’s opposing starter. The Mets are still in position to collect their first series win over the Brewers at this ballpark since 2009, while the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven overall meetings.

Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (7-2, 3.27 ERA) is coming off of his worst performance of the season—surrendering eight runs, and nine hits, over just five innings of work in a 15-5 road defeat to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 4.33 ERA in seven road efforts, with opposing hitters batting .263 against him (.210 at home). In three lifetime appearances at this venue, Lohse has registered a 0-2 record and 6.28 ERA.

Mets starting pitcher Jonathon Niese (3-3, 2.68 ERA) has led the squad to three wins in his last four trips to the mound, but he didn’t earn a decision in a 4-2 road victory over the San Francisco Giants last Friday. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 2.92 ERA in six home starts—serving up just a single home run in 37 combined frames. Niese has produced a 2-0 record and 5.68 ERA in five career appearances versus the Brewers.

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their MLB picks, as the 'over' is 8-3-1 in the Mets’ last 12 overall games.

Free MLB Pick:  'Over' 7

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