MLB Picks: Bet the Run-Line for Padres vs. Dodgers

Steven Suarez

Thursday, July 10, 2014 1:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 10, 2014 1:42 PM UTC

Clayton Kershaw's on the mound, so you know the MLB odds are going to favor the Dodgers in a big way tonight. Check out our preview of LA's home date with San Diego in which we dish out our favorite value play.

Odds Overview
The Dodgers are the biggest favorites of the day and it isn't even really close. They're trading at as high of a number as -275 at some books, with others listing a line at -250. You can back the Padres at a hefty underdog price of +230.

Tonight's O/U is at six runs.

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San Diego Padres (Despaigne)
The Padres are in the middle of a seven-game road trip which will take them all the way to the All-Star Break. They just lost two of three in Colorado and will now take on the Dodgers in a four-game set in Los Angeles.

San Diego, despite a not-so-hot 40-51 overall record, is currently third in the NL West ahead of both Colorado and Arizona, though they're a sizable 10 games back of San Francisco and Los Angeles for the top spot.

It's obviously going to be tough sledding against Clayton Kershaw tonight, but the Padres counter with Odrisamer Despaigne, who's looked excellent in his first few major league starts.

Despaigne, who defected from Cuba, struggled in the minors but has lit up the MLB, allowing only two earned runs over 19 and 2/3 innings, good for a squeaky clean 0.92 ERA overall.

We know one thing though: the right-hander is unlikely to get much run support tonight. Look over the major offensive statistical categories and you'll see San Diego in last place pretty much across the board. Despaigne will have to be lights out to keep the Padres competitive here.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)
The Dodgers took some momentum into a two-game stop in Detroit, having taken three of four from the Rockies, but they were humbled quite a bit by the Tigers.

After losing 14-5 in the first game, with Hyun-Jin Ryu getting rattled for his worst outing of the season, LA couldn't get anything going against Max Scherzer yesterday, leading to a 4-0 defeat. The Dodgers are now 3-5 over their last eight games overall.

That being said, have no fear Dodgers fans: Kershaw is pitching tonight. The southpaw has picked up a winning decision in seven straight starts and has lowered his ERA to a ridiculous 1.85 in the process.

Just check out Kershaw's numbers from June. He went 6-0 with a 0.82 ERA in six starts and was able to get July off to a great start as well, holding Colorado to a measly two hits (and zero runs) in eight innings at Coors Field.

The Dodgers really couldn't ask for a better time to have their ace out there on the mound. They've hit a rough patch and would like to pick up some momentum heading into the All-Star Break – Kershaw is likely to oblige.

MLB Pick
We're not going to over-think this one.

Yes, Despaigne has looked good in his first few starts of his MLB career, but the Padres have been a miserable offensive team all season long and they're never going to be a team we back with confidence.

It honestly wouldn't be all that surprising to see Kershaw pull off another no hitter. He's pitching as well as he ever has before and San Diego has been beyond bad at the plate.

With the best pitcher in baseball on the bump and a much more dangerous offense surrounding him, we're backing LA on the run-line tonight.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

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