MLB Picks: Bet On Royals To Topple Tigers On Father's Day

Sunday, June 19, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

The Royals look to close out the Tigers in style on Sunday, as Chris Young clashes with Jordan Zimmermann in Kansas City this afternoon. Need an MLB pick for the game?

Detroit Tigers (34-34) – Jordan Zimmermann (9-3, 3.46 ERA)
Detroit’s staff is in disarray. It has yielded 53 runs in the last six games, and the Royals’ 16 last night was the most allowed since donating 20 to the Twins in August 2014. Left-hander Matt Boyd, who was optioned to Triple-A Toledo after yielding seven earned in 3.2 innings pitched yesterday, commandeered the hill for two of the outings. Overall, their 4.87 runs and .270 batting average allowed rank 24th and 26th in MLB respectively.

Manager Brad Ausmus hopes new ace Jordan Zimmermann can ease the pain. The former Nationals arm owns the most wins (9) for the club, and sports the second-lowest ERA (3.46) behind rookie sensation Michael Fulmer (2.43). But the two-time All Star is not immune to the staff’s recent slip, allowing 11 earned runs in 11.2 frames through his last two starts. His ERA jumped from 2.52 to 3.46 over the last calendar month. After stringing together seven quality starts to begin the season, Zimmermann has failed to record one in his last five appearances.

Zimmermann is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, one outing coming in April this season where the right-hander tossed six scoreless innings en route to a 3-2 Tigers victory.

Dating back to August 2015, the OVER offered by the MLB Odds is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the two hard-hitting AL Central clubs. They have scored 4.12 runs more than the average total (8.3), crossing the place 12.4 times per game in this span. One of the lineups has reached double digits in runs scored in six of the matchups.

The Tigers’ modus operandi is to outslug opponents. They rank in the top five in MLB in batting average (.272), hits (9.43), and total bases (15.4) per game. When scoring six runs or more on the year, they are 21-3; 13-31 scoring five runs or less. In fact, Detroit hasn’t come out on top of a pitcher’s duel all season, going 0-13 when scoring fewer than three runs.


 

Kansas City Royals (37-31) – Chris Young (2-6, 6.15 ERA)
The Royals are streaky. Winners of seven of their last eight, they dropped eight in a row at the beginning of the month. Prior to the losing run, they pieced together a separate 7-1 stretch. One spot the team has offered consistency is playing at home, going 24-8 at Kauffman Stadium.

Chris Young gets the nod for skipper Ned Yost this afternoon. After a brilliant 2015 campaign, age may finally be catching up to the 37-year-old, soft-tossing veteran. He owns a whopping 6.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings, reaching the sixth inning once in nine starts this season. The Royals are just 3-6 in his outings, but 3-1 at home.

Young is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA against the Tigers lifetime. He baffles their big sluggers. Miguel Cabrera (2 for 20), Victor Martinez (3 for 15), and Ian Kinsler (2 for 15) own a combined .140 batting average in 50 at-bats.

Kansas City is 16-4 in their last 20 as a home dog.

 

Final Analysis
The Royals are 21-1 at Kauffmann Stadium when crossing the plate four times or more this season, their only defeat coming to the Tigers 10-4 in the opener of the current four-game stand. The Tigers have allowed four or more runs in four of Zimmermann’s last five starts.

Detroit’s bullpen is stretched, and Ausmus will likely keep the ace on the hill longer than he should, making for some Royals runs. Young will have to have a better day, but we'll back the Royals bullpen any day over Detroit's if it comes to that. Kansas City -101 is the free MLB Pick.  

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Free MLB Pick:  Royals -101
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage