MLB Picks: Bet Rockies vs. Braves 'Over' 7.5 Sunday

Steven Suarez

Sunday, May 25, 2014 3:19 PM GMT

The series will be decided this afternoon after a split in the first two games. Julio Teheran and the Braves are favored in the MLB betting odds, but find out inside why we're not completely sold on the home team as our top pick.

Odds Overview
Glancing around the various sportsbooks, we find Atlanta at -165 to -170 to win today. Colorado is quoted in the +145 to +155 range.

The O/U for the series finale is at 7.5 runs, with the 'under' having hit in each of the first two games.
[gameodds]3/286933/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Colorado Rockies (Morales)
It's been an up and down month for the Rockies so far. They've gone 10-9 in 19 games so far in May, a span that includes series wins over the Rangers and Mets and losses to the Reds and Royals.

Colorado's scary good offense has let them down in the first two games of this set with Atlanta though, as they've totaled only five runs.

That's a far cry in terms of production from what we've seen out of the Rockies throughout the season. They're first in the majors in every major offensive category and have already scored an amazing 262 runs (with a .295 team batting average) through 49 games.

Surprisingly enough, it's the Rockies' pitching that has kept them competitive in this series, but we're not sure Franklin Morales will keep that trend going this evening. He's 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP so far in 2014.

 

Even away from hitter-friendly Coors Field, Morales has struggled majorly. The left-hander has surrendered 33 hits and 16 earned runs (five homers and a .295 opposing batting average) in 28 and 1/3 innings on the road.


Atlanta Braves (Teheran)
The Braves are two games up on the Marlins in the NL East, thanks to a good run that's seen them win five of their last seven.

However, after winning the series opener 3-2 behind a great effort from Gavin Floyd and the bullpen, Atlanta couldn't get anything going against Juan Nicasio in a 3-1 loss in game two of the set. The Braves only generated four hits in the defeat. 

You'd have to say Atlanta will have a better chance against Morales, though either way they should have a great chance with Julio Teheran on the bump.

Teheran is enjoying a spectacular start to his season, having gone 3-3 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Five days ago he pitched a complete-game six-hitter (with eight strikeouts and only two walks) in a 5-0 home win over Milwaukee. Teheran should come in full of confidence here.

Unfortunately, the Braves offense has been sputtering in 2014. They're ranked 29th in runs scored and are in the bottom ten in batting average, on base percentage and slugging as well.


Pick
Yes, we just got done talking about Atlanta's inability to score runs, but we think they'll rise to the occasion against the shaky Morales. The Braves have been way better against lefties this season, batting .287 as opposed to .223 against righties. Chris Johnson (.440) and Justin Upton (.393) have been especially good versus southpaws.

Meanwhile, Teheran has been impressive, but he's also coming up against an offense that can explode in any given inning.

After being held down in the first two games of the series, we wouldn't be surprised to see these two offenses break out. We obviously really like the chances of that happening for Atlanta, so let's roll with the 'over' with our MLB picks. 

MLB Free Pick: 'Over' 7.5 Rockies vs. Braves