MLB Picks: Bet Red Sox +100 vs. Athletics

Steve Merril - Steve@prosportsinfo.com

Friday, July 12, 2013 1:14 PM GMT

The Red Sox will be playing their 8th consecutive road game while the Athletics are returning home after playing a 6-game road trip.

Red Sox at Athletics (10:05 pm ET)

Boston (57-37, +13.1 Units) and Oakland (54-38, +13.7 Units) begin a 3-game series tonight. Let's have a look at the MLB odds for this game and analyze the matchup.

Boston is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against Oakland this season. 

John Lackey will get the start for Boston while Jarrod Parker takes the mound for Oakland.

Lackey (6-6): Has pitched much better than his record indicates.  He owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  Lackey has pitched incredibly well over his last three starts; he has a 2.05 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 22 innings pitched.  Lackey is 18-6 in his career against Oakland with a solid 2.91 ERA and 1.16; his teams are 20-13 (+4.3 Units) in those games.

Parker (6-6): Has actually pitched worse than his record indicates.  He owns a 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 107 innings of work.  Parker has not pitched well at home as he is just 3-3 in nine starts with a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP allowing 46 hits in 51.7 innings of work.  Parker is a perfect 2-0 (+2.5 Units) in his career against Boston with a miniscule 1.35 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Oakland Coliseum:  The A’s home park is pitcher-friendly as it suppresses runs at -14% which helps fly ball pitchers.  Lackey is a ground ball pitcher (51% GB rate) which fits well in this park.  Parker is more of a fly ball pitcher (41% FB rate) so it’s troublesome that he hasn’t pitched well in his home park. 

Lackey Projection: Based on the underlying skills and advanced metrics I use, Lackey shows a line of 2.6 earned runs, a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP against the A’s in this game. 

Parker Projection: Based on the underlying skills and advanced metrics I use, Parker shows a line of 2.8 earned runs, a 4.09 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against the Red Sox in this game. 

Red Sox: Boston’s offense is the best in baseball ranking #1 with 492 runs scored (5.2 runs per game).  The Red Sox scored 34 runs in their recent 4-game series in Seattle. 

Athletics: Oakland’s offense is in bad form as they scored just 4 total runs in their recent 3-game series in Pittsburgh.  The A’s have scored 3 runs or less in six of their last ten games overall.

Bottom Line: The current line on this game shows Oakland as a slight home favorite (-110) with the Red Sox as the road underdog (+100).  The current total is 7.5 Over/Under -110 either way.  Based on the starting pitching match-up numbers alone, we see some good value with Lackey and the Red Sox in this game.  The total is a bit low based on our projections for Parker, even with the strong -14% park factor in play.  We recommend passing on the total, however there is value for your MLB picks with Boston +100 at a plus-money underdog price in this game on Friday night.

[gameodds]3/238634/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Don't forget to check out our Betting Lines & Odds Report for today~