MLB Picks: Bet Phillies vs. Mets 'Over' the Total

Joe Freda

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:07 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013 1:07 PM UTC

The New York Mets ended a five-game losing streak with Tuesday’s 5-0 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, evening their present set. What does Wednesday's game have in store for baseball bettors?

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Today’s rematch has Mets righty Daisuke Matsuzaka taking the hill against Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels. Who should you add to your sports picks in this match?

Mets, Niese shut down Phillies

Mets starter Jon Niese held Philadelphia to three hits in Tuesday’s victory, tossing five strikeouts over a complete nine frames. The southpaw helped his own cause with a three-run double, while mates Daniel Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud logged one RBI each.

Phillies third baseman Michael Young had his side’s warmest bat with a 2-for-3 night, while Roger Bernadina and Chase Utley both went 0-for-4. Philadelphia’s Kevin Frandsen recorded one of his side’s two errors, while the contest’s five runs plunged ‘Under’ the ‘total’ of 7.5.

Matsuzaka shelled in return

Matsuzaka made his first start for New York in Friday’s 6-1 defeat against the Detroit Tigers, falling as a 161 home dog. The 32-year-old allowed five runs over just as many innings, surrendering two homers as part of giving up six hits.

New York’s Marlon Byrd poked an early RBI-single, while adding a double as part of a 2-for-4 outing. Mets mates Eric Young and Wilmer Flores hit a combined 6-for-9, with Ike Davis striking out twice in a 0-for-4 night from the cleanup spot.

Hamels goes seven at home

Hamels logged a second straight no-decision on the same evening, lasting seven frames in a 4-3 victory for Philadelphia over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The San Diego native allowed all three of Arizona’s runs on six hits, cashing as a 115 home favorite.

Philadelphia’s Darin Ruf and Carlos Ruiz cracked a homer and double, respectively, each finishing 2-for-4. Phillies reliever Jonathan Papelbon picked up his staff’s win, uniting with B.J. Rosenberg to give up one hit over the contest’s final two frames.


Back the ‘Over’ in New York

Hamels opened as a 155 road favorite in the early morning MLB betting odds, while the ‘total’ was first set at a flat 7.5. New York’s weather forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, with calm winds and a temperature of 69 degrees.

I am backing the ‘Over’ in this duel as part of Wednesday’s free MLB picks, despite the low octane seen in the series so far.

Hamels has given up four earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Mets, with last month’s most recent visit to Citi Field cashing for ‘Over’ backers. New York’s Juan Lagares has hit two doubles in a 4-for-7 mark facing Hamels, while Eric Young is 6-for-14.

Matsuzaka was loose in his Mets debut and now faces a fuming Phillies lineup after Tuesday’s shutout loss. Philadelphia’s Michael Young has had a hot 4-for-7 series at the plate, while having a solid history against the arm of “Dice-K” – cracking a homer and two doubles (8-for-14).

The ‘Over’ is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six matchups as a road favorite, while going 4-1-1 in New York’s last six matchups that followed a spot of giving up two runs or less. Look for the ‘Over’ to cash again here, adding to the 4-1 clip for the wager in umpire Angel Hernandez’ last five outings behind home plate in National League parks.

MLB Pick: Bet the Phillies/Mets game OVER 7.5 (+105) at William Hill 

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