MLB Picks: Bet 'Over' & RedSox to Play Spoiler Again vs. Yankees

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 2:28 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 2:28 PM UTC

The Yankees are trying to lock down a post-season berth, but they've lost the first two games of this series. Is New York our MLB pick for Wednesday night, or run with the Red Sox?

Red Sox vs. Yankees Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on New York with Masahiro Tanaka was the -174 offered at BetOnline, while Boston with lefty Wade Miley was getting +167 at 5Dimes. The Yanks could also be played getting +120 on the run line at Pinnacle.


The Situation
Boston, playing spoiler, has taken the first two games of this series, including a 10-4 decision Tuesday night. The Sox scored six runs in the first inning off New York starter Michael Pineda, and while Boston starter Rick Porcello gave four right back in the bottom of the first, he ended up going eight innings, allowing no more damage.

The Sox won Tuesday as +165 post-time underdogs, and the game played OVER its total of eight runs in the first inning.

Boston has now won five games in a row, and can still finish .500 or above this season.

The Yanks, meanwhile, now trail division-leading Toronto by 5.5 games in the AL East, and they haven't yet locked up a wild-card berth; they lead the AL wild-card race by three games over the Angels, 3.5 games over Houston.

New York leads this season series 10 games to seven, with the UNDERS going 9-8.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Tanaka (12-7, 3.38), who missed his last turn in the rotation with a sore hamstring, is 14-for-23 on quality starts this season, by our strict standards, and three for his last three. Twelve days ago he held the Mets to two runs through six innings, and over his last three starts he's held opponents to three runs through 21 innings.

New York is 15-8 in Tanaka's starts this year, with the UNDERS going 13-10.

In three starts this season against Boston Tanaka has allowed 10 ER through 17 1/3 innings; the Yanks, thanks to some super run support, won all three of those games, and all three games played OVER.

Miley (11-11, 4.39), after a slow start to this season, is 16-for-31 on quality starts, and three for his last four. Last Thursday he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings against Tampa, but over his three previous starts he held foes to seven runs through 22 2/3 innings.

The Sox are 14-17 in Miley's starts, with the OVERS going 17-14.

In three starts this season against New York Miley has allowed 11 runs through 17 2/3 innings; Boston lost two of those games, and two of those games played OVER.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
Boston ranks sixth in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .325 team on-base percentage, and sixth with a .417 team slugging percentage.

On the other hand New York ranks fourth against left-handed pitching with a .335 team OBP and 10th with a .417 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 38-37 on the UNDERS, even though they're averaging 9.1 runs per.


RedSox vsYankees Free Picks
New York gets the check marks in the pitching match-up and the bullpen comparison, but you know Boston is loving beating the Yanks the last couple of nights, and would probably also love getting back to .500, after falling so far back earlier this season. We'll go with the hotter team here, and add the Red Sox to today's rundown of free MLB picks. Also, Tanaka and Miley have combined for an ERA of 5.40 this season against tonight's opponents, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Boston & OVER 8 (+106) at Pinnacle


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