MLB Picks: Bet 'Over' 9 As Cubs & Diamondbacks Won't Slow Down Offensively

Drew Martin

Friday, April 8, 2016 5:46 PM GMT

When investing in the stock market the adage is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” Similarly, when investing in MLB totals, “Don’t fight two red hot offensive teams in high scoring run environments in a very friendly hitter’s park.” I recommend a bet on the over of 9 with your MLB picks tonight in Arizona.

The last time that the Chicago Cubs won a dozen games in a row away from home was in the 1945 season, which also just happens to be the last time that the team made it to the World Series. With last night’s win, the Cubs tied a team record that stood for over 70 years. This year’s Cubbies are an offensive juggernaut that has been on fire to start the season, having plated 29 runs, crushing 14 extra-base hits and drawing 17 walks in three games. Their ability to get runners on base with the third highest walk rate in baseball is making them a very difficult lineup to face, and one I am not looking to go against.

On the other side, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been scorching offensively as well. Arizona has racked up 25 runs already to this point in the season. Their new addition, second baseman Jean Segura, is 8 for 18 with five RBI’s in four games YTD. In short, Segura has been a great addition to the D-Backs’ already high powered offense. Paul Goldschmit and David Perralta hit behind Segura, creating a trio that is tough for any pitcher to go against, especially a hurler that doesn’t possess overpowering stuff and struggled down the stretch last year.

 

Pitching Matchup
Jason Hammel gets the nod for the Cubs, and he is hoping to have a turnaround year. Hammel got shelled after the all-star break last year, posting a 5.10 ERA during the last half of the regular season and a 14.54 ERA in two playoff starts. He does not possess high strikeout metrics, and has proven to be more of a pitch to contact guy. That high contact rate is alarming considering he will be facing a lineup that, to this point in the season, has the second highest hard hit rate in the majors at just short of 40%, and has shown great power in leaving the yard in their friendly confines of the hitters haven named Chase Field.

Similarly, Robbie Ray, the twenty four year old Tennessean, gets the nod for the home Diamondbacks even though he has not exactly earned the job. A quote from manager Chip Hale causes reasons for concern, “He ended the year with us, so that give him a little bit of a leg up and he hasn't let go of it.” Ray is coming off of a below average year, posting a 5-12 record with a 3.52 ERA over 23 starts in his first season with Arizona last year. The fact that he has not shown statistical improvement and doesn’t even have the confidence of his own manager is alarming to say the least. An even more troubling statistic that should cause worry to Arizona fans is that the southpaw was 1-6 with a 4.88 ERA in eleven games at Chase Field. This does not bode well when facing a star-studded Chicago lineup.

Betting Analysis
This is a classic case of not trying to get too cute. When investing in the stock market the adage is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” Similarly, when investing in MLB totals, “Don’t fight two red hot offensive teams in high scoring run environments in a very friendly hitter’s park.” For your MLB picks, I recommend a bet on the over of 9 at -100 MLB odds tonight in Arizona.

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MLB Pick: Over 9 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle