MLB Picks: Bet Mets vs. Nationals to go 'Over' 7.5

Joe Freda

Tuesday, June 4, 2013 12:49 PM GMT

Find out why we believe that the 'Over' holds the best value for our MLB picks in tonight's matchup between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.

The New York Mets were swept over the weekend in Miami, with the Marlins outscoring Terry Collins’ club by a combined margin of 24-8. Tuesday’s MLB slate has the Mets continuing their road trip against the Washington Nationals, with Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann (8-3, 2.37 ERA) facing New York’s Jeremy Hefner (1-5, 4.74 ERA) in a matchup of righties.

Check out our Tuesday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

Mets edge out Nats in April

New York went 2-1 against Washington in April’s three-game set at Citi Field between the rivals. Hefner picked up a no-decision as part of his start, allowing three runs over four frames, while Zimmermann lacked run support in a 2-0 defeat for Washington in the series’ finale. 

Washington cashed at 6-3 in its nine home dates against the Mets last year, with the ‘total’ splitting in a 4-4-1 mark. New York logged a pair of losses in Hefner’s outings, while the Nationals notched two one-run victories in Zimmermann’s starts. 

Zimmermann lit up in Baltimore 

Zimmermann logged his second loss in three starts with Wednesday’s 9-6 defeat for Washington as a 104 road dog against the Baltimore Orioles. The Wisconsin native was shelled for seven runs on 10 hits, including three homers in his six innings of action. 

Washington jumped out to an early 6-2 lead, with outfielder Roger Bernadina drilling one of his side’s four long balls. Nationals mates Tyler Moore and Chad Tracy were held to a combined 0-for-8, leaving five men on base. 

Hefner notches first win 

Hefner came away with his first victory in 11 starts on the same day’s card, cashing as a 166 road dog in the Mets’ 9-4 win over the New York Yankees. The 36-year-old gave up three runs over six frames, surrendering one homer as part of nine hits.

Mets infielders Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda poked one double each, uniting to hit 3-for-9. The duo’s mate Ike David drove in two runs from the lineup’s No. 8 slot, while leaving three men on base in a 2-for-5 night.

Back the OVER in Washington 

MLB odds opened Zimmermann as a 200 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 7 ½ (UNDER minus 120). The weather forecast in Washington calls for a 70-degree night, with calm winds. 

I am adding the OVER in this duel to Tuesday’s free picks, looking for the series to start off with some runs on the board.

Hefner faces some capable bats here in the Nationals’ lineup, with Danny Espinosa and Adam LaRoche uniting to hit three homers in a combined 20 career at-bat’s. The OVER is 5-1 in Hefner’s six road starts, with the hurler allowing a sizable 1.43 WHIP and .344 OBP in opposing parks.

Zimmermann should settle down in his return home, but could see a few early runs struck from the Mets’ lineup. New York’s Ike Davis belted a homer in Sunday’s 2-for-4 day at Marlins Park, while he an mate John Buck have drilled five extra-base hits in the duo’s 29 lifetime at-bat’s against Zimmermann.

The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last five road spots against a right-handed starter, while cashing at 6-1 in Washington’s last seven home dates with a ‘total’ set between seven and 8 ½. Look for OVER backers to collect again here. 

MLB Pick:  OVER 7 ½ at Bet 365

Also check out Joe Freda's free pick for the Cubs and Angels matchup tonight.