MLB Picks: Bet Marlins vs. Braves to go 'Under'

Joe Freda

Thursday, July 4, 2013 12:41 PM GMT

Thursday’s MLB betting has the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins playing a rubber-match finale at Turner Field.

Atlanta’s Julio Teheran is slated to face Miami’s Henderson Alvarez in a duel of righties, with Alvarez making his season debut. Who should you back in your baseball picks?

For more MLB betting analysis, check out our Daily Pitching Report!

Marlins, Ruggiano answer back

Atlanta opened the series with Tuesday’s 11-3 victory, cruising as a 255 favorite. Braves third baseman Chris Johnson poked a pair of doubles as part of his side’s 16 hits, finishing with a 3-for-4 night.

Miami rallied for Wednesday’s 6-3 win, evening the series as a 196 underdog. Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano cracked a homer and double from the leadoff spot, notching three RBIs.

Teheran shuts down D-backs

Teheran logged his third win in five starts with Friday’s 3-0 triumph for Atlanta over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Colombia native tossed 10 strikeouts over six innings, cashing as 167 home ‘chalk.’

Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton drove in one run each, while B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla united to bat 4-for-7. Braves closer Craig Kimbrel notched his 23rd save, combining with relievers Luis Avilan and Jordan Walden to allow no hits over the final three frames.

Alvarez returns for Marlins

Alvarez began the year on the disabled list for Miami with a shoulder injury, following his acquisition from the Toronto Blue Jays. The 23-year-old started 31 games for Toronto last year, logging a 9-14 record with a 4.85 ERA.

Alvarez’ latest rehab start came this past Friday with Double-A’s Jacksonville Suns, tossing 7 2/3 frames of shutout ball against the Mobile BayBears. The hurler’s side went on to lose the duel, 1-0, despite Alvarez holding Mobile to two hits.

Back the UNDER in Atlanta

MLB betting odds opened Teheran as a 230 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 7.5 (UNDER minus 115). Atlanta’s weather forecast calls for a 75 degree night, with an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms.

I am adding the UNDER in this duel to Thursday’s sports picks, looking for a tighter finish compared to the set’s first two affairs.

Teheran has gone three home starts without allowing a run, logging 29 strikeouts over the span’s 20 innings of action. The UNDER is 6-1 in the third-year hurler’s seven outings at Turner Field, giving up a stingy 1.10 WHIP and.288 OBP.

Alvarez’ time at the minor-league level has been sharp, giving up five hits over 14 1/3 IP. The Venezuela native saw the UNDER cash at 2-0 in his final pair of road starts last year, holding the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles to seven runs in 12 2/3 frames.

Miami has hit a sparse .229 against right-handed pitching on the road, while held to 3.4 RPG in its last nine spots away from home. Atlanta has held allowed 3.1 RPG in its last 11 home dates, while the UNDER is 5-2-1 in Atlanta’s last eight duels that followed a spot of giving up five or more runs.

Look for these UNDER trends to come through again here, ending this set with some low octane.

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MLB Pick: Marlines Braves going UNDER 7.5 runs at Bet365