MLB Picks: Bet Indians & Yankees to go 'Over'

Joe Freda

Monday, June 3, 2013 12:51 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 3, 2013 12:51 PM UTC

Find out why we believe that the total holds the best value for our MLB picks in tonight's matchup between the Cleveland Indians and the New York Yankees.

The New York Yankees have logged a 1-4 mark in the first five games of their present homestand, held to a combined 10 runs over the struggling stretch. Joe Girardi’s club remains at Yankee Stadium for Monday’s opener against the Cleveland Indians, with Yankees southpaw Andy Pettitte (4-3, 3.83 ERA) slated to oppose Indians righty Justin Masterson (8-3, 3.07 ERA).

Check out our Monday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

Yankees rack up runs in Cleveland

New York went 3-1 against the Indians in four matchups over the season’s first two months, outscoring Cleveland by a combined margin of 32-8 at Progressive Field. Pettitte gave up one run over seven frames to cash as 123 road ‘chalk,’ while Masterson tossed a complete-game shutout for Cleveland’s sole victory.

The Yankees cashed at 3-0 in last June’s most recent home set with Cleveland, while the UNDER went 2-1. Pettitte allowed one earned run over four frames in his start, while Masterson surrendered four runs in a six-inning stint. 

Pettitte returns to the hill 

Pettitte’s last start came on May 16 against the Seattle Mariners, picking up a third loss in five outings with New York’s 3-2 defeat as 185 home ‘chalk.’ The 40-year-old gave up two runs over 4 2/3 IP, leaving due to a back injury. 

Pettitte moved to a sizable 1.59 WHIP and .378 OBP in his four home starts, with New York going 1-3 over the span. The veteran’s most recent extended layoff resulted in April’s 9-4 victory for the Yankees against the Toronto Blue Jays, cashing as 115 road dogs after Pettitte was idle for 10 days. 

Masterson shuts down Reds 

Masterson notched a fourth win in five starts with Wednesday’s 5-2 victory for Cleveland as a 141 home favorite against the Cincinnati Reds. The Jamaica native allowed one run on four hits, while tossing seven strikeouts over six innings. 

Cleveland’s Nick Swisher and Jason Giambi united to drive in four runs, both batting 2-for-4 at the plate. Indians third baseman Mark Reynolds added his 13th homer of the year, while he and his mates edged the Reds in hits, 9-6.


Back the OVER in New York 

MLB odds opened Pettitte as a 121 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at a flat eight. The weather in New York is expected to clear up with a forecast of 71 degrees and calm winds. 

I am backing the OVER with my free picks in this duel, looking for both lineups to have their chances despite facing a pair of marquee arms. 

Pettitte’s last three home outings have seen the OVER cash at 2-1, while the lefty has surrendered two homers in the span’s latest 9 2/3 IP. The Yankees’ bats should feel some pressure for run support, coming in off a pair of lopsided losses to the Boston Red Sox. 

Masterson has had his share of home-road disparity, giving up 12 earned runs over his last two starts away from Progressive Field (12 1/3 IP). The OVER is 3-0-1 in Masterson’s last four road starts against clubs with winning records, while going 4-1-2 in the hurler’s last seven spots as a road dog.

Cleveland has seen the OVER collect at a 4-0 clip in its last four road games against a lefty starter, with the same wager cashing at 10-4 in the team’s most recent 14 spots that followed a defeat. Look for the octane to rise higher than expected here, giving the money to OVER backers again. 

MLB Pick:  OVER 8 at Bet365

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