MLB Picks: Bet Dodgers ML & OVER with Confidence vs. Padres

Darin Zank

Sunday, September 6, 2015 1:56 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 6, 2015 1:56 PM GMT

The Dodgers are at their high-water mark for this season, and look to close out a series victory at San Diego Sunday afternoon.

Dodgers-Padres Sunday Odds
As of early Sunday AM the best line available on Los Angeles with lefty Brett Anderson  was the -124 offered at Heritage, while San Diego and Andrew Cashner were getting +120 at GT Bets. And most of the MLB betting odds market listed a total on today's game of seven runs, with a few 7.5's out there, too.

 

The Situation
LA has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series, following Saturday's 2-0 victory. So the Dodgers have won 10 of their last 12 games, while San Diego has lost four of its last five.

At a high-water 77-58 Los Angeles leads the NL West by 7.5 games over second-place San Francisco.

At 65-71 the Padres are down to playing out the string on this season.

The Dodgers lead this season series 10 games to five, with the OVERS going 8-7.

 

Sunday's Starters
Cashner (5-13, 4.15), by our tough accounting, is 13-for-26 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Tuesday he gave up four runs in five innings against Texas, and just before that he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against Washington. For the season Cashner has allowed 168 hits through 156 innings, walked 48 and struck out 134.

San Diego is 10-16 in Cashner's starts, with the OVERS going 15-9.

In three starts this season against Los Angeles Cashner has allowed nine runs - seven earned - through 18 innings; the Padres lost all three of those games.

Anderson (8-8, 3.43) is 12-for-26 on quality starts. Monday he gave up three runs in five innings against San Francisco, and over his last four starts he's given up nine ER through 23 2/3 innings. On the season Anderson has allowed 159 hits through 152 innings, walked 40 and struck out 100.

The Dodgers are 14-12 in Anderson's starts, with the UNDERS going 13-12.

This will be Anderson's first start against San Diego since 2009, when he was with Oakland.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
LA ranks 10th in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .322 team on-base percentage, and eighth with a .417 team slugging percentage.

San Diego, on the other hand, ranks 26th against left-handed pitching with a .305 team OBP and 26th with a .361 team slugging percentage.

We'll give the edge with the sticks to the Dodgers.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Petco Park this season have skewed toward the OVERS by a 40-24 margin, averaging 8.5 runs per, which is high for Padres games.

 

Dodgers-Padres Free Picks
LA is the hotter team, with more to play for, so while Anderson doesn't exactly excite us, we'll play the Dodgers today. Also, with a little help from these bullpens, both of which we rank in the bottom third in baseball, this game should play OVER.

 

Picks: Dodgers (-125) & 'OVER' 7 (-120) at The Greek

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