MLB Picks: Bet Brewers vs. Cardinals to go OVER

Joe Freda

Thursday, September 12, 2013 12:00 PM GMT

The St. Louis Cardinals stayed unbeaten in their present homestand with Wednesday’s 5-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, cashing as 147 home favorites. Find out why we are placing our MLB picks on the total in tonight's matchup.

Thursday’s MLB action has a duel of righties slated, with St. Louis’ Joe Kelly (8-3, 2.74 ERA) meeting Milwaukee’s Tyler Thornburg (1-1, 2.08 ERA).

Check out our Thursday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

Cardinals, Adams collect again

Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams cracked a two-run homer in Wednesday’s eighth inning, capping off a late surge of insurance for his club. St. Louis’ Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday both finished with 2-for-4 nights, while the affair’s combined six runs dipped UNDER the ‘total’ of eight.

Milwaukee’s Scooter Gennett and Norichika Aoki united to hit 4-for-6, with Gennett poking his ninth double of the year. Brewers mates Jonathan Lucroy and Aramis Ramirez both went 0-for-4, while Lucroy left two men on base.

Kelly stays stingy at home

Kelly notched a fifth straight win in Friday’s 12-8 triumph for St. Louis as a minus 102 home choice over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The second-year hurler held Pittsburgh to one run over six frames, allowing eight hits.

St. Louis’ Jon Jay and Carlos Beltran both logged 3-for-4 nights, uniting for five RBIs. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina drilled a three-run homer, while closer Edward Mujica came away with his 36th save.

Thornburg returns for Brewers

Thornburg has been idle since Sept. 2, failing to cash as a 132 home dog in a 5-2 defeat against the Pirates. The 24-year-old gave up two runs on six hits, departing after six innings of action. 

Brewers outfielder Logan Schafer logged his club’s sole RBI, while shortstop Jean Segura finished 2-for-4. Milwaukee was edged in hits, 11-8, while the battle’s seven runs ducked UNDER the MLB odds ‘total’ of 8 ½. 

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Back the OVER in St. Louis 

Most online MLB betting sites opened Kelly as a 175 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at eight (OVER minus 115). The weather forecast in St. Louis calls for a clear 77 degrees, with calm winds blowing left to right.

I am backing the OVER in this finale as part of Thursday’s MLB picks, looking for octane to pick up on both sides. 

Kelly has had solid numbers on the hill, but faces a few bats in Milwaukee’s lineup that have had their share of success. Norichika Aoki has two doubles in a 5-for-9 career mark, while Jean Segura has two RBIs in his pair of at-bat’s against the righty.

Thornburg opposes a Cardinals’ club that has hit .288 facing right-handed pitching at home, while St. Louis’ David Freese has cracked a homer in his sole appearance against the Houston native’s arm. Freese should have the matchup he needs to break out of an 0-for-5 slump in the series, while the OVER is 9-4-1 in St. Louis’ last 14 home dates against righty starters. 

St. Louis has piled in 7 RPG over the first five dates of its homestand, while the OVER is 10-1 in the club’s last 11 spots that came in a series’ third game. Look for some more fireworks here, with OVER backers getting the money again. 

Pick:  OVER 8 at William Hill