MLB Picks: Bet Brewers 'Under' 69.5 Wins Due To Poor Pitching & Inability To Get On Base

Joe Catalano

Friday, March 18, 2016 8:22 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 18, 2016 8:22 PM UTC

Looking at the Brewers pitching staff, they have no chance at a successful season, but watch as we check their flaws and predict if they'll go 'over' or 'under' the total projected by MLB oddsmakers.

Where Are the Positives?
It seems like ever since Ryan Braun got his hand “caught in the cookie jar” and finally apologized, this team has never been the same. Braun certainly hasn't been the same and formidable hitters such as Carlos Gomez have moved on to greener pastures with a playoff contender such as the Houston Astros.

The Brew Crew do have a legitimate catcher in Jonathan Lucroy (7 HR, 43 RBI,.264 BA), but Lucroy had a poor season last year and will need to bounce back and stay injury-free for this team to even be competitive and lead the team into the MLB picks. Left-fielder, Khris Davis (27 HR, 66 RBI, .247 BA) did provide some much-needed pop and timely hitting, but he lacks the ability to get on base while 2nd baseman, Scooter Gennett lacks in the power department (6 HR, 29 RBI, .264 BA in limited at-bats), but has gotten some timely hits.

To sum it up, the Brewers are a team with one legitimate, but tainted star in Ryan Braun (25 HR, 84 RBI, .285 BA), a power guy in Khris Davis with a high upside, a shortstop in Jean Segura, who is a good fielder but can't hit Mike Trout's weight, and that is really about it at the moment. They certainly could be headed for 100 losses for the 2016 MLB season.


How To Get 27 Outs?
This is the big issue for Milwaukee as they have 5 starters and a bullpen that are going to find it very difficult to accomplish this goal with some form of efficiency.


Taylor Jungmann
2nd year player, Taylor Jungmann, checks in as the ace. While this is difficult to believe, Jungmann did have a successful rookie campaign with a 9-8 mark and a 3.77 ERA. Jungmann pitched 119 1/3 innings while allowing the opposition to hit .241 off of him and he struck out 107 batters.

On a team such as this, these are very solid numbers for a player entering his second year and Milwaukee should be able to get the same kind of production from him with more innings invested. Jungmann is certainly not a weakness, but not ready for the lead spot in the pitching rotation.

Where the rest of the rotation is concerned, Jimmy Nelson (11-13, 4.11 ERA) is an innings eater and on a good team, could have a winning record, but on this team it's questionable. After Nelson, the rotation goes downhill very quickly with Matt Garza (6-14, 5.63 ERA) as Garza allowed the opposition to hit a whopping .294 off of him. After Garza, we see more of the same in the number 4 and 5 spots in the rotation with pitchers who also allowed a ton of hits to the opposition. There's not much hope and even 69.5 wins seems like a lot to accomplish.


I've clearly stated that you can't win with poor pitching. While the Brewers still have a semi-star in Ryan Braun and a power hitter in Khris Davis, this is a 162 game regular season. Milwaukee would have to go 70-92 to win with an over bet according to the MLB odds and their roster shows that they're incapable of doing so. Take the under 69.5 with confidence.

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