MLB Picks: Bet Braves vs. Phillies to go 'Under'

Joe Freda

Friday, July 5, 2013 2:07 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 5, 2013 2:07 PM GMT

Friday’s MLB betting has the Philadelphia Phillies returning home from a 10-game road trip for an opener with the Atlanta Braves. Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee (9-2, 2.59 ERA) is slated to oppose Braves righty Tim Hudson (4-7, 4.22 ERA), with the clubs meeting for the first time since early April.

Phillies cash in Pittsburgh

Philadelphia ended its lengthy journey with Thursday’s 6-4 victory as a 118 underdog against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Phillies mates Ben Revere and Carlos Ruiz united to hit 5-for-8, logging two RBIs each, while closer Jonathan Papelbon notched his 17th save. 

Atlanta heads north after a pair of defeats to the Miami Marlins, capped off by a 4-3 upset on Thursday’s card as 240 home ‘chalk.’ Braves reliever Craig Kimbrel allowed a late go-ahead run for his staff’s loss, while the duel stayed UNDER the ‘total’ of 7 ½, cashing UNDER tickets for my followers

Lee edged out in L.A. 

Cliff Lee picked up a second straight no-decision in Saturday’s 4-3 defeat for Philadelphia as 115 road ‘chalk’ to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 12-year veteran allowed three runs over seven innings, tossing 10 strikeouts. 

Phillies slugger Chase Utley cracked two homers, while he and his mates edged Los Angeles in hits, 11-6. Philadelphia’s Justin De Fratus gave up a walkoff single to Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, logging his staff’s defeat.

Hudson, Braves top D-backs 

Hudson also came away with a no-decision on the same day’s card, while Atlanta notched an 11-5 victory as 145 home ‘chalk’ over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 37-year-old lasted 5 2/3 frames, allowing four runs on five hits. 

Atlanta rallied with a seven-run surge in the eighth frame, starting with outfielder Jason Heyward’s double to score mates Reed Johnson and Andrelton Simmons. Braves slugger Justin Upton finished with a 3-for-4 day, while Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann notched two RBIs each.

[gameodds]3/238071/?r3=169-43-999997-192/dec&r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Back the UNDER in Philly

The MLB odds first opened Lee as a 142 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at seven (OVER minus 120). The weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for an 85 degree night, with partly cloudy skies and calm winds blowing outward.

I am adding the UNDER in this duel to Friday’s sports picks, looking for the pair of marquee starters on the hill to hold serve for their clubs. 

Hudson has settled down in his last three road starts, giving up just six earned runs and no homers over the span’s 20 IP. The UNDER has cashed at 5-1 in Hudson’s last six outings overall, while going 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five spots that followed a defeat.

Lee has been stingy at home with a 1.13 WHIP and .275 OBP over his stretch of six starts. The veteran faces a Braves lineup that has hit just .232 facing lefties on the road, while the UNDER is 10-1 in Lee’s last 11 outings against National League East foes.

Philadelphia was held to 3.7 RPG in its latest homestand, including an UNDER ticket cashed in a 4-2 victory over the Washington Nationals with Lee on the hill. Atlanta has managed a sparse 2.7 RPG over its most recent seven road games, reaching north of three runs just twice. 

Look for the octane to start out low in this series, adding another UNDER ticket to the 4-0 mark for the wager in Lee's last four matchups against Atlanta. 

MLB Pick: UNDER 7 at Bet365

Get Jeff Grant's take on this games pitching matchup here.
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