MLB Picks: Bet Braves +106 vs. Reds

Jeff Grant

Monday, May 6, 2013 12:51 PM GMT

Monday, May. 6, 2013 12:51 PM GMT

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds rank second and third respectively in run differential in the Senior Circuit this season, as the two teams prepare to open up a three-game series Monday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this National League matchup from the Great American Ball Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Cooled off

Atlanta snapped a three-game losing streak by picking up a 9-4 win over the New York Mets as -158 home favorites Sunday, but the club has still managed to drop 11 of its last 17 contests overall. 

The Braves are 32-29 in May the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 29-28-4 in that situation. 

Back on track—thanks to the Cubbies 

Cincinnati ended its road trip with an even 5-5 record, as it closed things out with a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, including a 7-4 victory as -135 favorites Sunday afternoon. 

The Reds are a disappointing 73-75 against teams with a winning record since the start of the 2011 campaign, while the UNDER is 70-67-11 in those 148 opportunities.

Maholm

Braves starting pitcher Paul Maholm (3-3, 3.08 ERA) has dropped his last three efforts, including a 2-0 setback to the Washington Nationals last time out, as he allowed two runs and three hits over eight strong innings. 

The left-hander is 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA in four road outings this season, issuing 10 walks and striking out 22 batters in 24.1 combined frames, with opposing batters hitting for a .216 average. 

In 20 career starts versus the Reds, Maholm has tallied a 7-4 record and 3.70 ERA, including a 3-0 mark and 2.76 ERA in his last three appearances in the series. 

Arroyo

Reds starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo (2-3, 3.95 ERA) has received just two runs of support in losing back-to-back starts, including a 2-1 setback on the road to the St. Louis Cardinals last time out, as he surrendered two runs and six hits over seven frames. 

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in three home appearances, as he’s allowed just one home run in 22 innings, while striking out 14 and issuing just two free passes. 

In 16 appearances (15 starts) versus the Braves, Arroyo has compiled a 6-3 record and 5.34 ERA.

[gameodds]3/226150/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Braves as one of their MLB picks Monday, as they rank second in the league with 41 home runs, which could prove to be the difference at this ball park in what figures to be a low-scoring game. 

It’s important to mention that the weather forecast suggests a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms throughout the course of the game, which could favor Cincinnati if a rain delay occurs.  The Reds have an advantage in terms of long relievers in their bullpen. 

MLB Pick:  Atlanta Braves +106 at Pinnacle
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