The Blue Jays are hot, racking up runs by the bunches, coming off a sweep of a double-header Saturday in the Bronx. Should we stick with Toronto, at an underdog price?
Blue Jays-Yankees Sunday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on the MLB odds board for the New York and Masahiro Tanaka was the -128 at GTBets, while Toronto and RA Dickey were getting +123 at Pinnacle. And the totals sat at 8.5 runs.
Toronto has taken the first three games of this series, racking up 30 runs in the process, following a sweep of Saturday's double-header, by scores of 9-5 in 11 innings and 10-7.
With the victories the Blue Jays (82-60) upped their lead in the AL East to 4.5 games over the Yankees (77-64).
New York, which has lost five games in a row, also saw its lead in the AL wild-card race shrink to three games over second-place Texas and four games over third-place Minnesota.
The Jays now lead this season series 11 games to four, with the UNDERS going 9-6.
Tanaka (11-6, 3.57), by our strict standards, is 12-for-21 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Tuesday he limited Baltimore to one run through eight innings, with 10 strikeouts, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight runs through 21 1/3 innings. For the season Tanaka has allowed 112 hits through 136 innings, walked 26 and struck out 125.
New York is 14-7 in Tanaka's starts, with the UNDERS going 11-10.
In three starts this year against Toronto Tanaka has allowed seven earned runs through 19 innings; the Yankees only won one of those games, while all three of those games played UNDER.
Dickey (10-10, 4.01) is 15-for-29 on quality starts, and two for his last two. Tuesday he held Boston to one run through six innings, and just before that he held Cleveland to one run through a nine-inning complete-game effort. On the season Dickey has allowed 176 hits through 189 innings, walked 58 and struck out 116.
The Jays are 17-12 in Dickey's starts, with the UNDERS going 14-12.
In three starts this year against the Yankees Dickey has held them to just three runs and 13 hits through 21 1/3 innings; Toronto won two of those games, and two of those games played UNDER.
Sunday's Batting Splits
Toronto leads the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .332 team on-base percentage, and ranks second with a .450 slugging percentage.
New York, meanwhile, ranks 15th against righties with a .317 team OBP but fourth with a .425 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are now 38-34 on the OVERS, averaging 9.4 runs per.
Toronto took a hit Saturday when SS Troy Tulowitzki collided with OF Kevin Pillar and broke a scapula. His status for the rest of this season is now uncertain. Also, IF Edwin Encarnacion left Saturday's second game with an injured finger, and is questionable for today. So the Jays might be down a couple of sticks Sunday.
Jays-Yanks Sunday Free Picks
Toronto has Big Mo on its side at the moment, and getting an underdog price. Despite the injuries we'll stick with the Blue Jays with our MLB picks for Sunday. Also, these two starting pitchers have combined to allow just 10 runs through 40 innings this season against today's opponents, so we're thinking UNDER.