MLB Picks: Bet Angels Over Orioles, Trusting Heaney at Home

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, August 7, 2015 2:31 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 7, 2015 2:31 PM UTC

Before betting on today's MLB match in LA between the Baltimore Orioles & the Angels of Anaheim, note that both these teams are locked in the Wild Card race with Baltimore trailing the Angels by 2 games.

Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) vs. LA Angels (Heaney)  10:05 ET
The Baltimore Orioles visit the LA Angels for the 1st of a 3-game weekend series.  First pitch is scheduled for 10:05 ET.  The LA Angels (57-50) have fallen behind the Astros by 2 ½ games for the AL West lead.  Baltimore (55-52) trails the Yankees by 6 games for the AL East division lead.  Both these teams are locked in a race with Toronto and Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot.  An obvious play would be to back Baltimore, who is the team in better current form as the hunter in the role of underdog.  We, however, will take a more contrary position with the better pitcher and a team who may have reversed their fortunes with their most recent victory.  

The Baltimore Orioles were recently in a 5-15 mid-season funk.  At that time, they dropped below .500 in danger of missing post-season play.  Since that time, however, they have gone 9-3 after taking 2 of 3 in Oakland to begin the week.  The batting and pitching OPS numbers accurately reflect the Orioles performance.  Tonight’s starter, Gausman, has pitched well since his recall from the minors.  In 14 2/3 IP, Gausman has allowed 2 runs with an 11/1 KBB.  A major reason for us to fade Baltimore with MLB picks tonight is the play of both Gausman and Baltimore on the road.  In 8 road appearances, including 3 starts, Gausman has a 6.46 road ERA.  The Orioles are nearly a reverse of their 32-20 home mark with a 23-32 log on the road.  

For the LA Angels, the 18-4 mid-season surge is a distant memory.  The 3-10 slide has allowed Houston to surpass them for the division lead.  But Wednesday night on this field, they got a win that could jumpstart their resurgence when they scored the winning run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 9th for a 4-3 victory over Cleveland.  That victory lifted the Angels’ home record to 34-22.  Tonight’s starter, Heaney, has been a pleasant surprise.  Since joining the rotation, the Angels have won 6/7 Heaney starts, in which he has posted a 1.97 ERA.  Most impressive has been his work from this mound, where the Angels have won all 4 of his home starts in which he has a PLAY ON 0.81 home WHIP.  

We play the Angels on a momentum turnaround behind Heaney’s excellent work from this mound.

MLB Picks: Angels -129 at Bovada

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