MLB Picks: Bet Angels -103 to Overcome Felix Hernandez & Mariners

Darin Zank

Saturday, September 26, 2015 4:40 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 26, 2015 4:40 PM UTC

The Angels have crept to within a half-game of a wild card spot, but run into a nemesis Saturday in Seattle's King Felix. Who do we like in this spot for a free MLB pick?

Mariners-Angels Saturday Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on Seattle with Felix Hernandez was the -105 at Heritage, while BetOnline listed Anaheim with lefty Andrew Heaney at -102. Also, Pinnacle was offering the Angels at +206 giving a run and a half on the run line.


The Situation
Anaheim grabbed Game 1 of this series Friday night 8-4, with help from homers from Albert Pujols and CJ Cron and a quality outing by Garrett Richards. So the Angels have won three in a row, while the Mariners have lost three straight.

At 79-74 Anaheim trails division-leading Texas by five games in the AL West, but also lurks just a half-game back of Houston in the battle for the second American League wild card spot.

At 74-80 Seattle would just like to make a late run at finishing .500.

The Angels lead this season series 10 games to seven, with the UNDERS going 9-7-1.


Saturday's Starters
Heaney (6-3, 3.30 ERA) is 10-for-16 on quality starts this season. Last Saturday he held Minnesota to two runs through six innings, while just before that he threw five scoreless innings against Houston. Heaney began his 2015 campaign back in June with six QS in a row; since then, though, he's been a little more hittable, as perhaps the book on him gets around.

Anaheim is 10-6 in Heaney's starts, with the totals leaning 8-7.

In his one career start against Seattle, back on July 12, Heaney tossed seven innings of five-hit, shutout ball, walking one while whiffing six, in a 10-3 Angels victory.

Hernandez (18-9, 3.54 ERA) is 19-for-30 on quality starts, but only four for his last 10. Last Sunday he held Texas to two runs through 5 2/3 innings, but he also walked five, and left the game with with stiffness in his elbow. Supposedly he's good to go today, but “stiffness in the elbow” doesn't sound good.

Over his last five starts, including a decent effort against Anaheim 11 days ago, Hernandez has allowed 11 runs through 36 2/3 innings.

The Mariners are 19-11 in the King's starts this season, with the UNDERS going 16-12.

In five starts this season against the Angels Hernandez has held them to just six runs through 34 innings, and four of those runs came in one start; Seattle is 3-2 in those games, with the UNDERS going 3-1-1.

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Saturday's Batting Splits
Seattle ranks 20th in the Bigs this season against left-handed pitching with a .315 team on-base percentage, but sixth with a .423 team slugging percentage.

Meanwhile, Anaheim ranks 26th against right-handed pitching with a .305 team OBP and 20th with a .399 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at the Big A this season are 41-32 on the UNDERS, averaging 7.6 runs per, fourth-fewest among all ML ballparks.


M's-Angels Free Picks
It's not easy betting against the King, but in this spot Anaheim needs this one more. And who knows how long Hernandez might go tonight. We'll take the Angels for one of our free MLB picks for Saturday.

MLB Pick: Angels -103 at BetOnline

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