MLB Picks: Baseball Value Betting Odds

Steven Suarez

Saturday, April 6, 2013 2:08 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 6, 2013 2:08 PM UTC

Can we pick out two winners with our MLB picks today? It's time to examine the odds again and see what we can come up with in terms of betting value.

MLB Value Betting

Minnesota Twins (Worley) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tillman)

After opening up the series with a 9-5 win, we feel the Orioles will again get a comfortable win in game two of this series with Minnesota. 

Baltimore will send out Chris Tillman, with Vance Worley getting the call for the road team. When it comes to the baseball odds, the Orioles are favored in the -150 to -160 area, and the total is at nine. 

We're only four games in, but Baltimore has looked very impressive in the early goings. They've scored the most runs of any team in the bigs (29) and are ranked second in batting average (.320), on-base percentage (.377), and slugging percentage (.524).

Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters have been on fire to start the year. Davis has already slugged four homers and 16 RBI, while Jones and Wieters are batting .429 and .417 respectively. 

Tillman has just recovered from an abdominal strain, but apparently is at full strength ahead of this start. He was a revelation for the Orioles last season, going 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA, including a 4-1 mark with a 2.79 ERA in six home starts. 

For Minnesota, Worley will make his second start of the season after allowing eight hits and three runs in six innings in a loss to Detroit. He went 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2012. 

If Tillman is anywhere near as effective as he was last year, this should be a win for the Orioles. They're playing with a great deal of confidence early on in the season, so let's go ahead and add them to our sports picks for the day. 

Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+130) for your baseball picks.


Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Chicago White Sox (Axelrod) 

We realize Felix Hernandez isn't going to completely dominate in every road start this season, but this short price on the ace is a little too good to pass up. 

Currently, the MLB odds have the Mariners as roughly -130 favorites, with the White Sox getting a +125 underdog price in their own ballpark. 

It doesn't really matter where King Felix is pitching. He's gotten the job done regardless, as evident by his 6-3 record and 3.43 ERA in 15 away starts in 2012, not to mention the fact he was in total control in his first start of 2013 in Oakland. 

Hernandez toyed around with the Athletics in a 2-0 win, throwing 7 and 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. He gave up only three hits, while striking out eight and walking one. It was another spectacular performance from the 26-year old righty. 

The Mariners, particularly Franklin Gutierrez (.412) and Michael Morse (4 HR), will try to get after Dylan Axelrod, who will fill in as the fifth starter while John Danks is on the disabled list. Axelrod had a solid spring, but has displayed control issues in his short career thus far – he posted a 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 14 appearances (seven starts) last year. 

Hernandez has been a bit shaky when visiting Chicago in the past, going 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA, but we think he'll pick up where he left off from his first start and do enough to get Seattle going. 

As we said, we're not passing up this kind of price on King Felix, meaning the Mariners will complete our MLB picks for Saturday. Best of luck.

Pick: Seattle Mariners -133


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