MLB Picks: Baseball Picks of the Day

Steven Suarez

Friday, April 12, 2013 12:08 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 12, 2013 12:08 PM UTC

The baseball season has hit full stride and we're starting to get a better picture of where the value lies. Here are two picks we like today. 

MLB Picks of the Day

New York Mets (Niese) vs. Minnesota Twins (Worley) 

To start things off, we are backing the Mets to win the series opener in Minnesota tonight. As of now they're barely favored in the -108 to -115 range. 

Both teams are on small losing streaks, with New York losing two in a row and Minnesota dropping three straight. 

However, we find it hard not to roll with the Mets considering what we've seen out of Vance Worley so far this season. Worley has already given up 18 hits in two starts this season and has still yet to get a winning decision. 

Worley was decent against Detroit in his debut, allowing eight hits and three runs in six innings. But he really struggled against Baltimore, getting tagged for 10 hits and five runs (four earned). Those struggles have translated into a 1.82 WHIP through two outings, with opposing hitters batting .360 against him. 

Worley's numbers against the Mets in 2012 were also quite horrendous, to say the least. He faced off against them three times and went 0-2 with a 8.79 ERA, giving up 27 hits and 14 runs in 14 and 1/3 innings. 

For New York, Niese has been one of the most consistent pitchers over the last few years. Last year he was even better on the road (7-4, 3.04 ERA) then he was at home (6-5, 3.74 ERA), and we like what we've seen through his first two starts of 2013. 

Niese has only given up three earned runs thus far and we like him to slow down Minnesota's bats enough for the visitors to get the win here. This is probably more of a fade of Worley than anything else though. 

Pick: New York Mets -108


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Baltimore Orioles (Gonzalez) vs. New York Yankees (Sabathia) 

The Yankees and Orioles will square off for the first time since last season's playoffs, with CC Sabathia getting the call against Miguel Gonzalez. 

Updated MLB odds have New York in and around the -150 area, with the runs total settling at eight. 

While both teams have been hitting the ball well in the early stages of the season, we can't help but think pitching will rule this series opener. Both Gonzalez and Sabathia can totally shut down lineups when on their game..

Gonzalez burst on to the scene in the middle of last season and hasn't looked back since. He finished with a 9-4 record to go along with a 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for the Orioles, and of course was rewarded with a permanent spot in the starting rotation. 

Not only was Gonzalez excellent outside of Baltimore (6-2, 2.74 ERA), he was a thorn in New York's side. In two appearances against the Yankees, he went 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, while holding them to a combined .196 batting average. 

When you add in an ace like Sabathia into the equation, we see a low-scoring final here. Sabathia is coming off a dominant outing against Detroit in which he pitched seven innings of scoreless ball. 

The hefty left-hander went 7-4 with a 2.69 ERA at Yankee Stadium in 2012. We think he'll bounce back after a poor outing versus Boston in his season debut at home, leading to a cashed ticket for the UNDER in this free baseball pick.

MLB Pick: UNDER 8 


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