MLB Picks: Baseball Betting Trends to Help Pick Winners

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, July 2, 2013 1:14 PM GMT

Nearly every MLB team is past the halfway mark to its season, which presents an opportunity to take a closer look at key stats and trends that have developed thus far. How can these trends help bettors when placing their MLB picks?


Division leaders taking care of business at home

There’s no doubt that MLB division leaders are enjoying some sort of advantage at home, as they’ve compiled a 153-87 record heading into the second day of July, with each being at least five games over .500 in that situation. 

It’s also important to point out that each of those clubs is currently plus-money in terms of overall performance. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (+2,730)

Cleveland Indians (+1,135)

Boston Red Sox (+866)

Atlanta Braves (+607)

Texas Rangers (+528)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+131) 

Buccos are delivering massive profits 

Pittsburgh has been far and away the most profitable club in MLB thus far, with the Oakland Athletics (+1,170) being a distant second in that category. 

The Pirates have earned +1,390 at home and +1,340 on the road, which has offered sports bettors numerous opportunities wiht their MLB picks in every situation. 

A sure way to lose money 

Sports betting forums are littered with threads lashing out at MLB bullpens throughout the year, which isn’t very surprising as many novice handicappers place too much of an emphasis on starting pitcher match-ups.

The five worst bullpens in terms of ERA have led to many sleepless nights, with each of them providing a negative return at this point. 

Los Angeles Dodgers (-1,408)

New York Mets (-1,115)

Seattle Mariners (-1,106)

Philadelphia Phillies (-979)

Houston Astros (-461)

Don’t OVER-think it 

Sports betting trends often even themselves out over time, which is certainly on display in terms of MLB totals, as the OVER is hitting at a 50.60 percent clip this season. 

In non-extra inning games, the result is nearly flat (524-525 Over/Under). 

Looking for value 

Everyone is looking for sports betting value in terms of money line wagering in baseball, but it’s important to point out that home underdogs have compiled a 170-196 (46.45%) overall record, which clearly demonstrates that you can’t rely solely on this angle to gain a major profit. 

It’s important to note that such teams are hitting at a 61.23% (229-145) clip when playing them on the run line (+1.5).