MLB Picks: Baltimore (+108) a Good Bet to Spoil the Yankees Home Field Hopes

Darin Zank

Sunday, October 4, 2015 1:59 PM GMT

New York is on the verge of blowing home-field advantage for this week's AL wild-card game and Baltimore is enjoying playing spoiler. Do we go with the hot Orioles for today's free MLB pick?

Yanks-Orioles Sunday Odds
As of this writing the MLB odds market was holding off on lining this game. Yesterday Baltimore won the first game as a -150 favorite, then won the second game as a +105 underdog.

 

The Situation
Baltimore swept a double-header from New York Saturday, by scores of 9-2 and 4-3, preventing the Yankees from assuring themselves of hosting the upcoming American League wild-card game. The Orioles have won four games in a row, while New York has lost five of its last six.

With a win today the Yanks will host that wild-card game, while with a loss they'll end up playing at either Houston or Texas.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has pulled itself to within one game of .500 at 80-81. And after the season they've had you can bet the O's would love to finish at .500.

These teams have now split 18 games this season, with the totals splitting 8-8-2.

 

Sunday's Starters
Chris Tillman (10-11, 5.05), by our strict standards, is just 11-for-30 on quality starts this season, but he's been a little better as of late. Monday he held Toronto to two runs through 7 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight runs through 19 innings.

On the season Baltimore is 14-16 in Tillman's starts, with the UNDERS going 15-13.

In his one start this season against New York Tillman gave up four runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 loss back in May.

Michael Pineda (12-9, 4.24) is 12-for-26 on quality starts. Tuesday he got bombed for six runs in the first inning by Boston, although he managed to go five more innings after that, allowing only one more run. And in his two starts previous to that he held the Mets and White Sox to one run through 11 1/3 innings.

On the season the Yankees are 15-11 in Pineda's starts, with the OVERS going 14-10.

In four starts this year against Baltimore Pineda has allowed 15 ER through 23 2/3 innings; New York managed to win three of those games, with the OVERS going 3-0-1.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 16th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .317 team on-base percentage, but fifth with a .424 team slugging percentage.

Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 19th against righties with a .312 team OBP but fourth with a .438 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are 40-37 on the OVERS, averaging 9.6 runs per, fourth-most among all ML ballparks.

 

Yanks-O's Free Picks
Baltimore played with a spark in sweeping Saturday's double-header, while New York did not. And you know the Orioles enjoyed every minute of the Yanks agony. Also, with a victory today Baltimore can finish at .500 on the season, which is something to shoot for. So while Tillman doesn't exactly inspire a ton of betting confidence, we'll go with O's for our free MLB pick on today's contest.

MLB Pick: Baltimore (+108) at Pinnacle