MLB Picks: Back White Sox To See Red vs. Blue Jays

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 2:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 26, 2016 2:33 PM UTC

The AL Central leading White Sox look for their second straight win over the Blue Jays. Let’s analyze this matchup and cash a ticket in our MLB picks tonight.

2016 MLB Record: (10-7, +2.87units)


Chicago White Sox (14-6, +8.6 units)
The White Sox exploded for five runs in the seventh inning and added a run in the top of the ninth to rally from a 5-1 deficit en route to a 7-5 road win over the Blue Jays. Chicago is on a roll, winning their last four and six of their last seven contests while taking control of the AL Central with a 14-6 mark and 1 ½ games in front of the defending World Series champion, Kansas City Royals.

Chicago’s ace Chris Sale (4-0, 1.80) will be on the hill tonight after a brilliant performance in his last outing where he logged seven innings of dazzling work, allowing just two hits and one unearned run in a 2-1 victory over the Angels.

But tonight he faces a top of the order Toronto lineup that has crushed left-handed pitching. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edward Encarnacion are hitting a combined .405 with three home runs against southpaws. Sale is 2-1 when starting against the Blue Jays in his career with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 0.870.


Toronto Blue Jays (10-11, -3.4 units)
Toronto has lost four of their last six and trail the Orioles by 2 ½ games in the AL East. While the team is a game under .500 their offense has been doing the job plating 90 runs on the season which ranks them 9th in the majors.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Jays, leading the team in batting average (.298), home runs (7), RBI’s (19) and hits (25). Jose Bautista’s .413 on base percentage leads the club.

R.A. Dickey (1-2, 6.10) will hope to end his three game winless streak. The veteran knuckleballer is 2-5 with a 7.40 ERA in 11 career games against the White Sox but wouldn’t mind a repeat performance of his last outing against the South Siders when he allowed just two runs on four hits in seven innings of work in July of last year. Yet even that effort proved not to be enough as he was outdueled by Jeff Samardzija in a 2-0 loss.

Betting Analysis
One of the things that separate a professional from a recreational gambler is their ability to think outside the box and not blindly back the heavy chalk. There are lineups and ballparks that give certain pitchers the jitters while there are hitters who simply cannot hit a knuckleball, a slider or a lopping curve. Is a team’s bullpen worn out after a series of games where the starters failed to go long, rendering them virtually ineffective for the game looming?

All of these elements and more come into play which is why I try to find value in the MLB odds boards if an underdog is simply getting too much return for me to pass them up. Here we have a matchup between two pitchers that is clearly one-sided. Chris Sale is a beast and one of the very best in the league at this moment.

He is not a flash in the pan where his numbers will eventually regress to the mean. He is the real deal and his ERA on the road (1.69) is better than his ERA at home (1.91). Conversely we have R.A. Dickey who, at age 41, is sporting a knuckleball that has lost its requisite unpredictability and has morphed from a volatile pitch to one that is a straight flat line.

Therefore, is Toronto’s superior offense and home field advantage enough to warrant including them in our MLB picks over a stone cold assassin like Chris Sale coupled with a team that is refusing to lose regardless of their situation (think of their rally from a 5-1 deficit in the seventh inning last night)?

At what point do we disregard this lopsided matchup and grab the value? Well, as of this Tuesday morning writing I don’t see nearly enough value in the Blue Jays and believe that Chris Sale and the AL Central leading White Sox are a steal at -116 at BetOnline.

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Free MLB Pick: White Sox -116
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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