MLB Picks: Back Mets To Win Against Favored Marlins In Tight Matchup

Jason Lake

Tuesday, April 12, 2016 1:08 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 12, 2016 1:08 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins put a big-time hurt on the New York Mets Monday night. Game 2 of their three-game set goes Tuesday night with the Mets favored on the MLB odds board.

Jason's 2016 record as of April 11: 4-1 ML (+3.14 units)

It's been a while since anyone took the Miami Marlins seriously. But here we are one week into the 2016 campaign, and the Marlins are a half-game ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. Okay, it's a small sample size, and sure, both teams have losing records. Go ahead, spoil the narrative already.

At some point, the Mets (2-4, -4.64 units) will probably overtake the Marlins (2-3, -0.99 units) in the standings. That point could be Tuesday night, after these two teams meet in Game 2 of their three-game series in the Big Apple. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. Eastern; at press time, the Mets are -135 favorites on our MLB odds boards. There's also a tiny, tiny total of six runs, which speaks to the quality of Tuesday's pitching matchup.

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First up, we have powerful Cuban righty Jose Fernandez (2.24 FIP in 2015) throwing for the Marlins. The 2013 NL Rookie of the Year is in his first full season, he hopes, after undergoing Tommy John surgery as a sophomore. Fernandez is throwing his 95-mph fastball a bit less often this year, but he still has his velocity, and he struck out 13 batters last Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers. He also gave up five runs in 5.2 innings as Detroit (–145 away) prevailed 7-3.

Then we've got one of last year's hottest rookies, 6-foot-6 northpaw Noah Syndergaard (3.25 FIP), taking the mound for New York. Syndergaard throws even harder than Fernandez, mixing a 98-mph heater with some 90-mph breaking stuff and a nasty, nasty curveball. The big Texan is coming off a strong performance against the Kansas City Royals (+115 at home) last Tuesday, allowing zero runs on three hits over six innings in a 2-0 win for the Mets.

Syndergaard has yet to face the Marlins in his career, so he should have an added advantage in this matchup. However, current New York hitters have a combined .665 OPS against Fernandez, although once again, we're dealing with a small sample size of 25 at-bats. Stupid small sample sizes. One other problem for the Mets: They used five relievers in Monday's 10-3 loss to Miami (+136). We're still putting New York in our official MLB picks here at the home office.

Fantasy Corner
At least this will help narrow the field for which Mets reliever we recommend for your MLB fantasy team. That would be righty Jim Henderson (3.08 career FIP). He's the only guy left in the bullpen, since Logan Verrett is making an emergency start on Wednesday.

Henderson has worked three perfect innings with two holds, seven strikeouts and a -1.45 FIP. Negative runs~! He's also available in virtually every fantasy league in the known universe. Enjoy, and when you speak of us, speak well.

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Free MLB Pick: Mets -133
Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

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