MLB Picks: Back Mets as Favorites over Rangers

Steven Suarez

Saturday, July 5, 2014 1:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 5, 2014 1:47 PM UTC

Both the Mets and Rangers have been struggling immensely recently, so it could be tough to locate any good MLB betting odds value. Will we be focusing on a money-line play or head towards the total with our baseball betting picks?

Odds Overview
The Mets won the series opener 6-5 yesterday and are favored to get another win tonight. The odds show a line of -135, with the visiting Rangers available for action at approximately +120. The O/U has opened at 7.5.

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Texas Rangers (Lewis)
Brutal. Just brutal.

We feel for you if you're a Rangers fan. They've lost six straight games and are an awful 2-10 over their previous 10, a run which has resulted in them being 16 games back of the division leaders (Oakland) in the AL West.

Yu Darvish couldn't get the job done last night, so one has to wonder how confident Texas is feeling now that they have to rely on Colby Lewis. Lewis has been a complete disaster in 2014, going 5-5 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

Those overall numbers are poor, but at least the right-hander has managed to pitch better away from home. On the road Lewis has gone 4-1 with a 4.64 ERA, which isn't anything special until you compare it to his 1-4 record and 6.54 ERA at home.

Bad pitching has been a common theme for Texas, with the team ranked 29th in overall ERA and 30th in quality starts, WHIP and batting average against. The Rangers' bats haven't been all that bad (hitting .257 as a team over the past week), but they really need to start getting some help out on the bump.

New York Mets (Colon)
Last night's 6-5 win ended a four-game losing streak for the Mets and brought the ballclub to 38-48 overall on the season. 

That record isn't going to get you very far, especially with both Atlanta and Washington starting to pull away in the NL East. New York comes into tonight having lost seven of their past ten games overall, though it should be noted that they've been on the road a lot as of late.

We'll have to see what kind of outing Bartolo Colon can come up with. The 41-year old has yet to face Texas this season, but he's coming off his most effective month of the season thus far and will fancy his chances. Colon went 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in six June starts.

The veteran has also been incredibly successful at home, where he's gone 4-2 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts. He's walked only four batters (with 42 strikeouts) in 42 and 2/3 innings of action at Citi Field in 2014.

While New York's pitching has actually been a highlight this season, it's the offense that's let them down, the opposite of what we've seen out of Texas. The Mets are near the bottom in essentially every major statistical category and a shoulder injury to star third baseman David Wright certainly hasn't helped.

MLB Pick
This is a simple pick really.

We're not about to side with Texas, given the way they've been playing lately and the fact they're sending out a shaky pitcher to the mound. The Mets haven't been all that bad at home and Colon has actually been terrific when pitching at Citi Field this season, so there are at least a couple things working in the home team's favor.

Until the Rangers turn things around and start showing signs of life again, we're going to keep fading them. Back New York as favorites, as they try to add even more misery to the Texas camp.

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