MLB Picks: Back Brewers Against Reds' Bailey

Jeff Grant

Thursday, May 1, 2014 1:07 PM GMT

The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball entering the month of May, which makes them dangerous road underdogs against the Cincinnati Reds. Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting lines for this National League Central showdown at the Great American Ball Park.

Quite an Accomplishment
Milwaukee is just the fourth team in history to win 20 times in March and April, as it looks to bounce back from a 9-3 defeat to the St. Louis Cardinals as +133 road underdogs Wednesday, while going 'over' the betting total for a third consecutive contest.

The Brewers enter this series with a 5.5- game lead over the Cardianlas in the division, while sitting 7.5 games ahead of the Reds.

MLB handicappers will find that the club has won all four of its series away from Miller Park in the early going—compiling an 11-2 record along the way.


Offensive woes
Cincinnati has dropped four of its last five affairs, including a 9-4 setback to the Chicago Cubs as -172 home favorites Wednesday—scoring just 12 runs over that span.

The Reds will need a big performance from outfielder Jay Bruce in this affair, as he’s gone 6 for 17 with four home runs in his career against tonight’s opposing starter, while Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick are a combined 1 for 22.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise has gone 26-17 at home with a money line of -100 to -125, with the OVER going 24-13-6 in that situation.


Estrada
Brewers' starting pitcher Marco Estrada (2-1, 2.87 ERA) has led the team to wins in four of his five outings, including a 5-3 home victory over the Cubs last time out—surrendering three runs and four hits over 7.2 innings of work.

The right-hander has gone 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA over his last 14 starts dating back to last season, while opposing hitters are batting just .216 against him in 2014.

In nine career games (five starts) versus the Reds, Estrada has tallied a 2-3 record and 3.51 ERA.


Bailey
Reds' starting pitcher Homer Bailey (1-2, 6.15 ERA) will look to bounce back from a 5-4 road defeat to the Atlanta Braves last time out, as he allowed five runs and nine hits over six frames.

The right-hander is 0-1 with a 8.68 ERA in two home efforts—serving up five home runs in 9.1 combined innings.

In 16 lifetime outings versus the Brewers, Bailey has put together a 3-7 record and 5.36 ERA, including an even 2-2 mark and 4.54 ERA in five appearances a season ago.


Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Brewers as one of their MLB betting picks, as the Reds have dropped seven of Bailey’s last 10 starts as a home favorite.

[gameodds]3/263158/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Free NHL Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +106