MLB Picks: Astros vs. Yankees Odds & Analysis

Joe Freda

Monday, April 29, 2013 11:49 AM GMT

The New York Yankees swept the Toronto Blue Jays this past weekend, reeling off four wins at home.With the Yankees as hefty ‘chalk’ here, where does the best value lie with a wager on the ‘total?’

Monday’s MLB betting has Joe Girardi’s club remaining at Yankee Stadium against the Houston Astros, with Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte (3-1, 2.22 ERA) facing Astros right-hander Lucas Harrell (2-2, 4.08 ERA).

Pettite falls to Rays

Pettite picked up his first loss in Wednesday’s 3-0 setback for New York as a 124 road dog against the Tampa Bay Rays. The 40-year-old allowed two earned runs over six frames, while ringing up 10 strikeouts.

The battle’s three runs plunged below the ‘total’ of seven, ending a 2-0 run for the OVER in Pettitte’s prior pair of starts. Yankees reliever Shawn Kelley gave up one hit over New York’s final two frames in the field, while outfielder Brennan Boesch recorded the game’s sole error.New York was held to four hits in the affair, with slugger Robinson Cano going 0-for-4. Yankees mates Brett Gardiner and Ichiro Suzuki each logged a 1-for-4 night from the lineup’s top two spots, while cleanup man Travis Hafner went 0-for-3.

Check out Mr. Steven Suarez' Morning MLB Lines Report~

Harrell stingy at home

Harrell notched a second straight win in Wednesday’s 10-3 triumph for Houston over the Seattle Mariners, cashing as a minus 104 home choice. The fourth-year hurler held the Mariners to one run on six hits, lasting a season-high seven frames.

Astros first baseman Brandon Laird drilled a homer and two doubles, finishing 3-for-4. Houston’s Ronny Cedeno and Matt Dominguez united to hit 5-for-8, logging a combined five RBIs.

The lopsided affair’s 13 runs sailed above the ‘total’ of eight, moving the OVER to 3-1 in Harrell’s last four starts. Astros leadoff man Robbie Grossman poked a pair of doubles, while mates Jose Altuve and Carlos Pena both had 0-for-4 days. 

[gameodds]3/225815/43-349/us[/gameodds]

Back the OVER in New York

5Dimes.eu opened Pettitte as a 240 home MLB odds favorite, with early betting on the veteran lifting the MLB odds to 250. The ‘total’ was first listed at eight, with a minus 115 lean to the OVER.

I am adding a ticket on the OVER here to Monday’s sports picks, expecting each side to have their share of chances at the plate.

Pettitte has not seen much of Houston’s lineup, but Astros slugger Carlos Pena has had his share of success. The Dominican Republic native has cracked six homers in 43 lifetime at-bat’s facing Pettite, while coming in with some spark after Sunday’s 2-for-3 day in Boston.

Harrell has had his share of respectable outings, but brings a sizable .374 OBP and 1.57 WHIP to this spot. Yankees mates Brennan Boesch and Travis Hafner have united to hit 5-for-5 against Harrell’s arm, while New York’s Jayson Nix is 2-for-3, including one double.

The OVER is 4-0 in Houston’s last four spots against left-handed starters, while going 4-1 in New York’s last five spots as home ‘chalk’ of 201 or more. Look for the OVER to get the money again here.

Free Pick: OVER 8 at Will Hill