MLB Picks: Astros +127 Reek of Value for ALDS Game 1 vs Royals

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, October 8, 2015 5:33 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 5:33 PM UTC

The Astros made it out of the wildcard round and into the ALDS vs. Kansas City. Let’s see what the MLB odds makers are offering and notch a win tonight in our MLB picks.

Astros’ Colin McHugh to Start
Colin McHugh is hoping to start where Luke Kuechly left off – with a strong performance and a victory. Houston had a rousing celebration after their 3-0 wildcard win in the Bronx but it is back to business at Kauffman Stadium to face the no-longer upstart Royals but veterans of last season’s World Series. McHugh spun a solid performance against the Diamondbacks in the desert where he allowed one run on six hits over seven full innings in his last start. McHugh got stronger as the season progressed and posted a 3.11 ERA over his final 14 starts.

The twenty-eight year-old righty posted a 19-7 record with a 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.28 in 32 starts this season. He has faced the Royals only once in his career which occurred on May 27th of 2014 where he held KC to just five hits, no runs over seven full en route to a 3-0 victory as a +120 road dog in MLB odds.


Royals Counter with Yordano Ventura
Ventura struck out 11 Minnesota Twins in his last start of the season as the Royals rolled to a 5-1 victory. The 24-year-old native of the Dominican Republic throws a hard slider and posted a 13-8 mark during the regular season to go along with a 4.08 ERA. Ventura was lit up in May of 2014 by the Astros when he was torched for five earned runs and run out on a rail in less than three innings which led to a 9-2 Kansas City defeat.

Ventura, eager to erase the memory of that ignominious defeat responded on July 26th of this season with seven solid innings allowing just six hits and one earned run which resulted in the Royals claiming a 5-1 victory and allowed all who backed them in their MLB picks to cash the +105 return.


MLB Picks
Both teams are young, passionate and exuberant but the Royals have been there before while the Astros are content to breathe easy after years of futility. But what counts is how these pitchers perform tonight because both teams have terrific bullpens and excellent defense. The starting pitchers will tell the tale as the Royals play their own brand of small-ball while the Astros swing for the fences and use their thunderous bats to muscle their way to victory.

The Astros are 26-9 in McHugh’s last 35 starts when the game is played on grass. Houston is 4-2 against the Royals this season returning 1.9 units to those who included the Astros in their MLB picks when facing Kansas City. I am not sure why the Royals are such heavy favorites here as the pitching match up slightly favors Houston as does the Astros slugging percentage that ranked 2nd in the majors. If the Houston bats come alive it will be lights out early because when the ‘Stros go, they go long.

If the MLB oddsmakers are going to offer me a plus return on my investment I see no reason to look this gift horse in the mouth. I will look at this as a coin flip and take the side that pays me the vig instead of me paying it.

MLB Pick: Play the Astros +127 at GTBets

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