MLB Picks: Angels & Astros Battle for Wildcard in Low-Scoring Matchup

Charles Stark

Monday, September 21, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

There are really big playoff implications when the Astros take on the Angels. For one of my MLB picks I'm going to bet under the total as it looks like we have a very solid pitching matchup.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with a total for this game at eight and the higher juice was initially on the over. That has switched though and now at most places under the total of eight has a little bit more vig than -110. There are some still pretty good odds out there and right now you can get under the total of eight at 5Dimes -113.


Los Angeles Angels
Jered Weaver takes the mound with a 4.74 ERA, 1.24 whip, and a 7-11 record. Weaver can rub some people the wrong way but the guy is a competitor and he should come out with a little chip on his shoulder considering he got kicked out of his last game. In his last three starts after two back to back bad starts he has been consistent allowing just six total earned runs in just over 16 innings. In one of those games he faced Houston in Los Angeles allowing two earned runs off of five hits in six innings. I expect him to keep the run totals down today.

The Angels rank 23rd in runs scored per game at 4.02, 25th in OPS at .694, and last in the major leagues hitting .243 as a team. I've mentioned this several times before Los Angeles hits the ball just about the same whether they are at home are on the road. I think they have a tough matchup today against a guy in a really solid bounce back spot and Cy Young contender, I expect their production to be limited.


Houston Astros
Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Astros and comes in with a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 whip, and a 17-8 record. He absolutely got lit up his last game allowing nine earned runs off of 11 hits in just four innings against the Texas Rangers. For me, this puts him in an excellent bounce back spot where he can pitch at home and come back from that awful outing. He has been extremely solid pitching in Houston with a 1.49 ERA, and batters hitting only .190 against him. Look for him to dominate the Angels today.

Houston ranks 10th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.37, eighth in OPS at .735, and 26th in batting average hitting .246 as a team. These guys have a lot of power throughout that lineup and Weaver is not immune to giving up the long ball. Still, they can struggle at the plate sometimes even at home and although I think they'll put some runs up today I think Weaver will limit them to four runs or less.

Playoff time is upon us and this matchup of wildcard contenders is very meaningful for both of these teams. Although it's always fun to take over the total in any kind of contest I think we are going to see a real pitcher's duel today. I suggest you back under the total for one of your MLB picks, should be a tight game in Houston.

MLB Picks: 'UNDER' 8 +109 at Pinnacle

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