MLB Picks: All Star Pitching Highlights Tonight's NLDS Game 5

Darin Zank

Friday, October 16, 2015 4:21 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015 4:21 PM UTC

This NLDS between the Mets and Dodgers comes down, as it should, to a Game 5 Thursday night in LA. Greinke is favored over deGrom, but where does the betting value lie?

Mets-Dodgers NLDS Game 5 Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with Zack Greinke was the -147 offered at 5Dimes, while New York with Jake deGrom was getting +142 at Heritage. The Dodgers could also be found getting +160 giving the run and a half on the run line at 5Dimes.


The Situation
These teams have split the first four games of this series, alternating wins and losses. New York took Game 1 out in Los Angeles 3-1, while the Dodgers with Greinke salvaged the split with a 5-2 victory in Game 2. The Mets then re-took the series lead with a 13-7 win at Citi Field, but LA avoided elimination with a 3-1 victory in Game 4 Tuesday night.

New York leads this series in runs 19-16.

The Mets also lead the season series with the Dodgers six games to five.


Game 5 Pitching Match-Up
Greinke (19-3, 1.66) started Game 2 of this series, allowing two runs on a pair of solo homers to Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, through seven innings, whiffing eight while walking none, in a 5-2 victory.

So over his last five starts Greinke has allowed seven runs through 37 innings, and in three starts this year against New York he's allowed four runs through 21 innings; LA won two of those games.

On the season the Dodgers are 24-9 in Greinke's starts, with the UNDERS going 19-14.

deGrom (14-8, 2.54) started Game 1 of this series and was near-brilliant, tossing seven shutout innings, allowing just five hits, walking one while whiffing a bakers' dozen in that 3-1 victory. The Mets beat Clay Kershaw that night as +175 dogs.

So in two starts this season against Los Angeles deGrom has thrown a total of 14 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just seven hits, walking three while striking out 21. And over his last three outings deGrom has allowed just one run and 10 hits through 17 innings, with three walks and 29 strikeouts.

On the season the Mets are 21-10 in deGrom's starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 16-14 margin.


Game 5 Batting Splits
New York ranked 21st in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .312 team on-base percentage, and 20th with a .397 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, ranked 10th against righties with a .322 team OBP and 11th with a .411 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Dodger Stadium during the regular season skewed OVER by a 45-34 margin, even though they only averaged 7.5 runs per, third-fewest among all ML ballparks. Oddsmakers tend to post some very low totals on LA home games.


NLDS Game 5 Free MLB Pick
Our handicapping factors lean slightly toward the Dodgers for Game 5, mainly because we give them an edge with the sticks. But betting baseball often comes down to value, and with a hot deGrom we believe the value on the Game 5 betting line resides with the Mets.

MLB Pick: New York +142 at Heritage

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