We've offered up free MLB picks on the side and the total for Tuesday night's All-Star game & now it's time to really have some fun. Here's our take on some of prop bets for tonight's contest, with a few recommendations, to be taken for what the dear reader thinks they're worth.
The Run Line
As of Tuesday morning the best MLB pick run-line price we could find on the home-standing and favored American League squad was the +190 offered at 5Dimes, while the National League could be bet at -205, getting the run and a half.
In a quick assessment of the two teams we give the AL the edge with the sticks, the NL the edge with the arms. And in situations like this we usually go with the better arms. So we like the Nationals to win this All-Star game for our sports pick tonight.
That being said, there's no way we'd touch a price of -200 just to get a run and a half on this contest. Instead, in searching for an alternative line, one that provides us with a chance to win more than we risk, we'll go with the National League giving a run and a half, getting +145 at Bovada MLB odds.
Hits + Runs + Errors
5Dimes is offering an 'over/under' of 26 on the totals number of hits + runs + errors. For comparison, last year's Mid-Summer Classic, a 3-0 American League victory, ended with a total of 15 H+R+E; two years ago, an 8-0 National League victory ended with 24 H+R+E. Now, we're not sure if either team will get shut out tonight, but we're still thinking sustained offense will be hard to come by.
So we'll take the 'under' 26 on the H+R+E.
The First Dinger
Outside of any All-Star game MVP betting boards – of which we could find none into mid-Tuesday AM – the “first home run” board offers us the best chance of a big payout on tonight's game.
Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz and Troy Tulowitzki top Bovada's “first homer” board at odds of 14/1. The hot Andrew McCutchen, Jose Bautista and Yasiel Puig follow at 16/1. And Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt are each listed at 18/1.
Tonight's starting pitchers – Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright – have combined to allow just nine home runs this season through a combined 280 innings. So the odds seem slim that either of them would give one up tonight. But they're also only going to throw two or three innings, so the hitters at the top of the orders are still probably the most likely candidates to hit the first dong. But McCutchen, Puig, Tulo, Goldy, Stanton, Trout, Cabrera and Bautista, among most others, are right-handed hitters going against right-handed starters. The first lefty to bat will be either the NL's Chase Utley or the AL's Robinson Cano.
So we'll play the lefty-righty situation and go with both Cano at 25/1 and Utley at 40/1 to hit the first home run in tonight's All-Star contest.