MLB Picks: ALCS Betting Value Found on Royals +124 Tonight at Home

Darin Zank

Friday, October 23, 2015 1:29 PM GMT

David Price is famously winless in his postseasoncareer, but Toronto needs him to come up big for Game 6. Down 3-2 to the Royals and facing elimination at Kauffman Stadium. 

ALCS Game 6 Odds
In the early betting action the best Game 6 MLB odds we could find on Toronto with lefty David Price was the -126 offered at Heritage, while Kansas City with Yordano Ventura was getting +124 at 5Dimes as home dogs.

Also, 5Dimes was now chalking KC at -265 to win this series, with the Jays getting +225 to rally and win the last two games.

 

The Situation
Kansas City leads this best-of-seven affair three games to two, and gets Game 6 and if necessary Game 7 at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have also outscored the Blue Jays in this series 34-23, outhitting and outpitching Toronto, on the whole.

This series might sit reversed, if the Blue Jays and Price hadn't blown a late 3-0 lead and lost Game 2.

 

Game 6 Starters
This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 2 of this series, a 6-3 Kansas City victory.

Ventura (13-8, 4.08), by our strict standards, only went 12-for-28 on quality starts this season, and he's 0-for-three in these playoffs. First, he started Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston, giving up three runs and four hits through just two-plus innings of a 5-2 Kansas City defeat; he then started Game 4 and gave up three runs and four hits, including a couple of dingers, through five innings of a 9-6 Royals come-from-behind victory; he then took the hill for Game 2 of this ALCS, giving up three runs and eight hits through 5 1/3 innings of another KC come-from-behind victory, 6-3.

Kansas City is 18-13 in Ventura's starts this season.

In two starts this season against Toronto Ventura has allowed eight runs and 14 hits through 12 1/3 innings; the Royals managed to win both those games.

Price (18-5, 2.45) went 22-for-32 on quality starts this year, nine-for-11 after joining the Jays back in August. But he's 0-for-two in these playoffs, to go along with an iffy performance in relief. First, he started Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rangers and gave up five runs through seven innings of a 5-3 Toronto loss; then he threw three innings in relief in Game 4, and gave up three runs and six hits, although the Jays won that game anyway 8-4; he then started Game 2 of this ALCS and threw six scoreless innings, but gave up five straight hits to start the seventh, left the game and eventually got charged with five runs, with no help from the bullpen, in that 6-3 Toronto defeat.

On the season the Jays are 9-4 in Price's starts.

In three starts this season against KC, the first two when he was still with Detroit, Price has allowed 10 ER and 24 hits through 22 innings; the Tigers won those first two games, but Toronto lost that third one.

 

Game 6 Batting Splits
Toronto led the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with both a .335 team on-base percentage and a .455 team slugging percentage. Also, while much was made of how the Jays only scored three runs total in Games 1 and 2 of this series at Kauffman Stadium, they scored 23 runs in taking three games of a four-game series in KC back at the end of July.

Kansas City, on the other hand, ranked 11th against left-handed pitching with a .323 team OBP and 15th with a .406 team slugging percentage.

 

ALCS Game 6 Free Picks
Despite his postseason struggles we give Price the edge in the pitching match-up, and Toronto owns an edge with the sticks. But KC owns the better bullpen and a raucous home-field advantage, while getting a home-dog price. And this game could very well come down to the bullpens. So for our free MLB pick in this spot we'll go with the value and the Royals.

Pick: Kansas City +124 at 5Dimes