Yankees vs. Cardinals Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
Most books we surfed opened St. Louis and Shelby Miller at around -140 over New York and Hiroki Kuroda, with a total of 7.5. But many books then also dropped the Cardinals to the -130 range, and even lower.
St. Louis scored four runs in the third inning Tuesday night, allowing starter Lance Lynn to relax and throw his first career shutout. The Cardinals won as -150 favorites on Tuesday's MLB line, and the game stayed UNDER its total of 7.5.
Matt Holliday hit his first homer in 24 games Tuesday, but St. Louis still ranks 28th in the Majors with just 29 dingers on the season.
Miller (6-3, 3.18), by our tough standards, is just two-for-10 on quality starts this season, mainly because he's been having problems going six full innings. At the moment he's a bit of a puzzle; last time out he gave up four runs in five innings against Cincinnati, but in his three starts previous to that he had held opponents to four ER in 17 1/3 innings.
On the season Miller has allowed fewer hits, 49, than innings pitched, 56 2/3, but the 30 walks is too much. St. Louis is 6-4 in Miller's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 6-4 margin.
This will be Miller's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Kuroda (3-3, 4.55) is just three-for-10 on quality starts, and he's coming off a rough outing, in which it took him 100 pitches to get 14 outs, allowing four runs – two earned – in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-5 loss to the White Sox last Friday.
Over his last three starts Kuroda has allowed nine ER and 20 hits in 16 2/3 innings.
For the season Kuroda has given up 66 hits, including nine homers, in 59 1/3 innings, walked 11 and struck out 46. New York is 4-6 in Kuroda's starts, with the totals splitting down the middle at 5-5.
This will be Kuroda's first start against the Cardinals since 2011, when he was with the Dodgers.
Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira has missed recent action with soreness in his wrist, and his status for Wednesday is very uncertain.
Free Pick for
St. Louis is better offensively against RH pitching, and New York is short a couple of regulars. So we'll go against the early betting flow and take the Cardinals, at the -121 offered at BetOnline, for our free pick on Wednesday's series finale.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting we found St. Louis and Lance Lynn at -134 over New York and David Phelps at Bet 365, while the Yankees could be gotten at +130 at Bet Online.
The Yanks pushed across three runs in the top of the 12th inning, then held on to take Game 1. New York won as a +160 post-time dog on Monday's MLB betting line, and a game that was tied at 3-3 into the 12th ended up going OVER its total of seven.
Lynn (5-2, 3.60) is five-for-10 on quality starts this year. Last time out he held Arizona to two runs through six innings, and just before that he held Atlanta to two runs through seven innings.
For the season Lynn has allowed 59 hits in 60 innings, walked 20 and struck out 59. St. Louis is 7-3 in Lynn's starts, with the totals going 5-4.
This will be Lynn's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Phelps (1-1, 3.18) will be making his fifth start of this season, to go along with nine relief appearances.
Most recently he held the White Sox to two runs through seven innings, and just before that he threw five scoreless innings against Pittsburgh.
On the season Phelps has allowed 32 hits in 34 innings, walked 15, which is a bit too many, and struck out 33. New York is only 1-3 in Phelps' starts, but the totals have tilted toward the UNDERS by a 3-1 margin.
Phelps, a St. Louis native, has never started against his hometown team.
New York's Mark Teixeira missed Monday's game with a sore wrist, and his status for Tuesday is uncertain.
Free Pick for Tuesday
The visitor took the first game of this series, but we like the home team to even things up in Game 2. And the price isn't too bad. So we'll go with the Cardinals, at the -134 offered at Bet 365, for Tuesday's free pick.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting St. Louis and Michael Wacha were chalked at around -170 over New York and rookie Chase Whitley, with a total of seven runs. The Cards could also be gotten at around +130 on the run line.
Big-picture, The Greek was listing St. Louis at -200 to win this series, with the Yanks getting +170.
New York just split a four-game series with the White Sox in Chicago, winning Sunday 7-1. So the Yanks have won seven of their last 11 games.
At 26-23 New York sits in second place in the AL East, two games back of first-place Toronto.
St. Louis just took two of three games from the Reds in Cincinnati, winning Sunday 4-0. The Cardinals have won four series in a row, and nine of their last 11 games.
At 28-22 the Cards are in second place in the NL Central, a game and a half back of division-leading Milwaukee.
These two teams haven't met since back in 2005.
Wacha (3-3, 2.54), by our tough standards, is six-for-10 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last time out he threw six scoreless innings against Arizona, and just before that he gave up two runs in seven innings against the Cubs.
Wacha left his last outing after six innings after getting hit on the elbow by a foul ball off the bat of teammate Matt Adams while sitting in the dugout – what are the odds? But he should be good to go Monday.
For the season Wacha has allowed fewer hits, 52, than innings pitched, 60 1/3, walked 17 and struck out 66. St. Louis is only 4-6 in Wacha's starts, with the totals splitting 5-5.
This will be Wacha's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Whitley (0-0, 1.00), a 24-year-old righty, will be making his third career ML start. In his ML debut he threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Mets, and last time out he held the Cubs to one run through 4 1/3 innings.
So through two ML starts Whitley has given up just one run and eight hits in nine innings, with three walks and seven strikeouts. The Yanks won both his starts, and both games stayed 'under' the totals.
In two-plus seasons of Triple-A ball, pitching primarily in relief, Whitley went 15-9 with a 3.05 ERA, allowing 142 hits in 174 innings, walking 53 while striking out 160. He was 3-2/2.39 at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre earlier this spring.
In the comparison of the bullpens for this series, St. Louis ranks 18th with a 3.89 ERA and is 15-for-22 on save opportunities, while New York ranks 20th in ERA at 3.92 and is 16-for-22 on save opps.
With the Sticks
New York ranks 14th in team OBP this season at .322, and 11th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game.
St. Louis ranks 10th in OBP at .326, 25th in scoring at 3.9 RPG, and just 29th in homers with 26.
Yanks-Cardinals Betting Trends
The Yankees have played nine 'unders' in their last 11 games.
The totals have leaned toward the 'overs' this season in games played at Busch Stadium by a 12-7 margin.
New York is without former Cardinal Carlos Beltran, who's on the DL with a bone spur in his elbow.
Free MLB Pick for Monday
We're leaning toward St. Louis on the side, but that price seems a bit much. So instead, we'll look toward the total for our free MLB pick on Monday's contest, and go with the 'under' seven runs, at the +102 offered at Pinnacle.