MLB Pick on Yankees as Underdogs vs. Orioles in Baltimore

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 14, 2015 6:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 14, 2015 6:03 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.


The underdogs could hold value Tuesday night in an American League East matchup when southpaw C.C. Sabathia and those New York Yankees (3-4, 1-0 away) pay a visit to right-hander Miguel Gonzalez an the Baltimore Orioles (3-4, 1-3 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has New York as a modest underdog for this contest at current odds of +111.

Tied for Last Place Early
These teams are tied for last place in the AL East through the early going, but they seem to be heading in opposite directions. The Yankees were sitting at 1-4 and getting no offense through five games when all of a sudden the bats came alive and they were winning MLB picks the last two games, first 14-4 in the finale of a season-opening home stand vs. the Boston Red Sox Sunday and then 6-5 in the opener of this series last night.

As for the Orioles, they come off of back-to-back seasons of their record outperforming their peripheral numbers, especially while winning the division with a 96-66 record last year, and that prompted us to play the ‘under’ 82½ wins on the Baltimore win total this year prior to the season with some regression to the mean expected. The Orioles opened up this year with two road wins over the Tampa Bay Rays but they have lost four of their last five games since then.

Sabathia Hit Hard but with Good Command in Return
The portly Sabathia has his season reduced to just eight starts last year due to arthroscopic knee surgery, ending a streak of five straight years with over 200 innings pitched, and he finished just 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 2014. Then, in his first start since last May, Sabathia was tagged for five runs with four of them earned in 5.2 innings by the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday.

However, the news was not all bad for C.C. as he did have eight strikeouts and not a single walk in those 5.2 frames and he topped out at 90 MPH with his fastball, a mark he actually had trouble hitting last season. If he can maintain that command and velocity, then it should not be long before he resembles the Sabathia of old.

And remember that the “good” Sabathia is 18-6 lifetime with a 3.34 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 30 career starts vs. Baltimore with 158 strikeouts vs. 48 walks.

Bad Peripheral Numbers for Gonzalez
Just like most of the Oriole team, Gonzalez outperformed his sabremetric numbers last year while going 10-9 with a 3.23 ERA, as he had poor command numbers with 111 strikeouts vs. 51 walks and 25 home runs allowed in 159 innings, resulting in just a 4.89 FIP and 4.46 xFIP as he also benefitted by yielding a fairly low .273 BABIP.

Well, that charmed life for Gonzalez continued in his first start this year even though he was charged with the loss, as he somehow escaped with allowing just one run vs. the Rays despite walking five batters to match his five strikeouts in 5.2 innings. Gonzalez seems to have regressed in performance since a fine rookie year in 2012, and we feel that his career 3.43 ERA is very deceptive and that regression is coming for him just as it is for the Orioles as a whole.

And this could be a tough matchup if the Yankees repeat their offensive performances of the last two games that first saw them score 14 runs on 16 hits vs. Boston and then follow that up with six runs on seven hits here in Camden Yards last night while belting out three home runs in each game, with Stephen Dew homering in both contests.

Orioles Bad Favorites Lately
Finally the Orioles have been burning money in this favorite role not only this young season but also going back to the playoffs and end of last season, as they are just 2-6 in their last eight games when laying chalk.

Look for another mild upset here with the New York Yankees coming away with the victory in Baltimore on Tuesday.

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MLB Pick: Yankees +111

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