Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
A matchup of two southpaws whose fine command numbers belie their records could lead to a sneaky ‘under’ in a pitchers’ park Monday night when C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees (41-35, 20-21 away) pay a visit to C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels (39-37, 23-17 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET in a game available on YES.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.
One Game from First to Fourth Place
The Yankees enter this contest in third place in the American League East after splitting four games with the Houston Astros, but that is a very liquid situation in a division where just one game separates first place from fourth place! The Yankees are just one-half game behind Tampa Bay and red-hot Baltimore tied in first, and New York is followed by Toronto one game out in fourth.
The Angels got off to a slow start this season but they are now up to second place in the American League West after being the winning MLB picks in three of their last four games, four games behind the upstart Houston Astros in first. The Angels have gotten great pitching allowing two runs or less in the three wins during this current span, and even only three runs in the lone loss.
The offense remains a concern with the Angels scoring a grand total of 10 runs during this 3-1 run, as they remain a disappointing 23rd in the Major Leagues in runs scored with 3.89 per game overall and 25th in batting at .242.
Now, a quick glance at the numbers for Sabathia would lead you to believe that the portly veteran is finished, as he had his season cut short by knee surgery last year and he had returned to go just 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season, and he was roughed up by the team with the worst record in baseball the Philadelphia Phillies for six earned runs in 4.2 innings last time out.
But that does not tell the whole story. For starters, Sabathia had allowed three runs or less in three of his previous four starts, but much more significant are his command numbers, as C.C. has a fantastic ratio of 78 strikeouts vs. 17 walks in 87.2 innings, suggesting that there is nothing wrong with his arm or his control. In fact, he is hitting 90 MPH more regularly these days, which he was unable to do before his surgery last season.
Sabathia has been very unlucky in allowing a 343 BABIP, which does not figure to continue, and he has had great success vs. the Angels allowing two runs or less in each of his seven career starts against them with four of those outings coming here at Anaheim, where the ball does not carry well at all at night. He faced the Halos once this season back in Yankee Stadium and allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings with seven strikeouts vs. one walk.
Wilson Better Than Last Outing
Similarly, Wilson is a disappointing 5-6 with a 3.92 ERA, but he too has good command numbers that belie that ERA with 84 strikeouts vs. 29 walks in 96.1 innings and even his very good 1.18 WHIP suggests the ERA is a bit fraudulent. Also similar to Sabathia, Wilson comes off of a rough outing where he was pummeled by the Astros for seven earned runs and eight hits in 3.1 innings, which is skewing the ERA and could be inflating this posted total.
Wilson had allowed one run and just 10 hits with 17 strikeouts vs. three walks over 15 innings in his previous two starts though, and he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts vs. the Yankees including allowing two runs or less in six of those outings. He now gets to face a New York lineup batting just .232 while averaging 3.90 runs on the road this season.
Still a Pitchers’ Ballpark
Finally, the ‘under’ has continued to hold some value at Angel Stadium this year as it has gone 22-17 with the games here averaging only a combined 7.38 runs. Also, the ‘under’ is 15-5-1 in the Angels’ last 21 games vs. left-handed starters, as well as 20-7 in the Yankees’ last 27 road games vs. teams with winning records.
With each of these starters being better than their records suggest, go ‘under’ again when the New York Yankees visit the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim on Monday.
MLB Pick: Yankees, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-113)