MLB Pick: Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins ‘under’ 7½

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The Marlins erupted for eight runs last night, but do not expect a replay from one of the worst offenses in the league so go ‘under’ as ace Ricky Nolasco faces Ross Detwiler of Washington.

Look for a low scoring game in the Sunshine State when Ross Detwiler and the Washington Nationals (8-6, 2-3 away) pay a visit to Ricky Nolasco and the Miami Marlins (3-11, 2-6 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Marlins Ballpark in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.

The Nationals took the series opener here 10-3 here on Monday night before the Marlins had an uncharacteristic offensive surge on Tuesday to prevail 8-2 to even the series, scoring more than three runs in a game for just the second time this season out of 14 games.

Do not expect Miami to duplicate last night’s offensive production tonight, as after all, we are talking about a team that ranks dead last in the Major Leagues in runs scored at 2.21 per game and that is also dead last in the National League with a .211 team batting average. The good news for the Fish though is that their ace Nolasco is on the hill, and at least he usually pitches well enough to give the Marlins a chance.

Yes, Miami as a team is 0-3 in Nolasco’s three starts this season with him personally gong 0-1, but that is through no fault of his own. In fact, his lone loss came at the hands of these Nationals on opening day and he actually pitched very well in that game allowing only two runs and three hits in six innings with five strikeouts. Unfortunately for Nolasco, two of the three hits he allowed were solo home runs by Bryce Harper, and that made all the difference in a 2-0 loss.

Nolasco then allowed thee runs and one run respectively in his last two no-decisions, leaving him with a fine 3.12 ERA, but unfortunately the Marlins have only given him 1.33 runs per game of support. While that horrendous Miami offense will cost Nolasco and the entire pitching staff wins, it may also make Nolasco a prime ‘under’ pitcher as long as he continues to perform like thee ace that he has become.

Also the National must regret facing him as that opening day performance was not an anomaly after Nolasco had not one but two Compete Game shutouts vs. the Nationals the last two times he faced them last year, allowing only a total of nine hits with 12 strikeouts and just one walk in those 18 scoreless innings. In other words, only Harper stands between Nolasco and 24 scoreless innings vs. Washington.

The Nationals are the defending National League East Champions, but they are off to a mediocre 8-6 start this season while sitting in second place 4½ games behind the scorching-hot Atlanta Braves, who are on a 10-game winning streak.

While the Nationals should have trouble again offensively vs. the unlucky Nolasco, Washington has its own unlucky hurler on the mound in Detwiler, who has no decisions in two starts despite allowing only one earned run on 10 hits plus three walks in 13 innings. Detwiler held those red-hot Braves to one run on only four hits in seven innings on Friday, but the Washington bullpen then blew a 4-1 lead as the Nationals lost 6-4 in 10 innings.

Look for both starting pitchers to maintain their form and for these teams to stay ‘under’ on Monday night.

[gameodds]3/225038/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Nationals, Marlins ‘under’ 7½ (-115)