MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There could be a minor upset down in Florida Wednesday night when rookie Yordano Ventura and the Kansas City Royals (46-43, 25-21 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Alex Cobb and the Tampa Bay Rays (42-51, 20-26 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Tampa Bay as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +104.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with the Royals winning 6-0 behind James Shields in the opener and the Rays coming back to prevail 4-3 last night. Still, Kansas City is doing a good job of hanging in the American League Central race as the Royals are in second 4½ behind Detroit.

The Rays are also making a move after owning the worst record in all of baseball for much of the early season as they are now 8-2 in their last 10 games, allowing them to escape the American League East cellar and moving up to fourth nine games behind Baltimore. The Rays may not be done moving up either as they may yet fulfill the potential that had many experts picking them to win the division before the season started.

With that being said, Tampa Bay should have its hands full with the hard throwing Ventura, who has been clocked at 100 MPH at times. Do not be fooled by his 6-7 record as Ventura has a 3.07 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a very good ratio of 80 strikeouts vs. 27 walks in 96.2 innings. And the youngster is on fire as he has allowed three runs or less in six straight starts while allowing two runs or less in five of those outings after limiting Cleveland to one run in 8.1 innings Friday.

He carried a shutout into the ninth inning that last game before allowing a solo homer to the Indians’ Michael Brantley. But then again there is no need to tell the Rays how dominant Venture can be after he tossed six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and striking out six in his first career start against them earlier this year!

Now we feel that Cobb is a fine pitcher in his own right, but he is off of his usually good form right now allowing 13 runs on 19 hits in 15 innings over his last three starts, going just exactly five innings on each occasion. Remember that Cobb missed about six weeks this season on the DL with an oblique injury, and it could very well be that he is not fully healed as of yet.

And even when healthy, Cobb has not fared well in his four starts vs. the Royals, going 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while allowing Kansas City batters to hit .324 off of him, and he has struck out just 11 Royals in 25 innings against them.

Therefore, Kansas City seems to offer value at a small underdog price from St. Petersburg on Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Royals +104

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